A fine 1-1 start to the week– let’s get more angles and more wins, shall we?
Pacers win (EVEN), 1.5 units: Even if Domantas Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon don’t play, I’ll still be on the Pacers tonight (but just for 1 unit in that case). Chicago is at the start of a 5 game road trip Tuesday that includes tough games against Atlanta and Memphis. Off a rare win against the Nets, Zach LaVine and company head to Indiana to face a Pacers team that’s been struggling lately. The Pacers recently beat the Spurs in OT, a win they needed, but before that they lost against the Wizards, Hornets, and only scored 87 in a loss against Miami. They need to find more rhythm on offense. Still, Indiana is a balanced team and a better team than Chicago. The Pacers are top 5 in assists per game and above average in field goal percentage. They also rank 11th overall in defensive efficiency. I like the addition of Nikola Vucevic for Chicago but after that big win against Brooklyn, Chi-town might feel a little fat and sassy coming into this contest tonight. On paper and in the truest form, the Bulls still aren’t as talented and capable as Indiana. After getting 3 days rest, I think all of Indiana’s key contributors will suit up tonight. It’s a bigger game than one may think. Both teams need to start stacking up wins since a playoff seed is far from guaranteed at this point. There’s your motivation, Indiana. Now get it done!
Hawks -3.5 (-115), 1.5 units: The Pelicans could be down multiple starters tonight with Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and Steven Adams all listed as questionable to play. The Hawks, meanwhile, are as healthy as it gets. Leadership and solid outings (and a big pay-day) from Lou Williams, dynamic scoring ability from Trae Young and consistent front court play from Clint Capela have the Hawks on a 3 game winning streak. I like how ego-less the Hawks are, too. Trae isn’t the flashiest or most arrogant star. Lou Williams is a consummate pro. And Clint Capela and other team members know how to contribute in their role. Maybe Nate McMillan should keep his job because he has Atlanta gelling and winning better than his predecessor. New Orleans already really struggles on defense and it sounds like their big-men won’t be available tonight (key word, sounds like). If Zion and Adams sit, this line will go up and this will feel like a great early play. But even if they do suit up, Atlanta is hot right now and they easily have the better spot. They’re at home tomorrow against Memphis; the Pelicans have to turn around and travel to Philly Wednesday. Advantage– Hawks. I like the over, too.
Sixers -2 (-115), 2 units: All signs point towards Joel Embiid playing tonight and ya know what I say to that? LET’S GO! The 76ers did a fantastic job staying afloat in his absence, winning 8 out of 12 games without their MVP caliber star. And Joel was the leading MVP candidate when he got injured. Make no mistake about it, if the Sixers are saying Embiid can suit up, that means he’s ready. The playoffs are peering around the corner and the Sixers don’t need to push anyone or anything to get there. They’ll get there. Still, reports say Joel is suiting up tonight and that’s an exciting prospect for Philly. Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris have done a great job the past month leading the team, although Simmons regressed a little in his last outing against Memphis. Look for that to change tonight. I can see Simmons asserting himself on a Celtics squad that’s really struggling lately on defense, especially against teams not named the Rockets and Thunder. Boston has a few recent wins in their pocket but against who? I’m not impressed. I haven’t been able to trust the Celtics all year and I absolutely don’t trust them against a motivated Philly team off a bad loss. I trust them even less knowing that they have a back-to-back against the Knicks tomorrow night. Boston hasn’t beat Philly yet this year and it won’t start tonight. Bet Philly.
Parlay, Clippers win and Clippers/Blazers under 229, 1 unit to win 1.8 units: I’m really interested in this game and think it could be the most entertaining of the night. I just think it’ll probably be the same story as always: At times, we all watch Portland and they’re white hot, they look like they’ll contend in the playoffs, they’re winning a ton of games… and then a Western Conference giant faces the Blazers and suddenly, they don’t look very exciting or nearly as capable. I hope that’s not the case, truly. Who doesn’t love watching Damian Lillard drop buckets from 38 feet in late game heroics? I know I do. He’s an electric player and probably doesn’t get all the credit he deserves. McCollum and Kanter and Covington and Jones Jr. are underrated, too. The Blazers are actually pretty stacked, at least on the offensive side. But this line favors the Clippers at almost 3 possessions for a reason. LAC has won 7 of their last 9 games. They’re also one of the few teams in the NBA who are top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (3rd on offense and 9th on defense according to Hollinger team ratings). The line and the data tell us that the Clippers can control this game and I think they will. That means it’ll move at a super slow pace (LAC is 28th in the NBA in tempo) and the Clippers will clamp down on Portland’s star players. Lillard’s prop bet for points is set at 27.5, lower than usual, and I think it’s dead on. Dame-time will be put in uncomfortable spots he’s not used to and as long as the Clippers don’t rest anyone tonight, this game could fall significantly under the total. Bet LAC, go under. Parlay it if you dare.
