We have a nice 11-4 start to baseball this year.
Oakland vs Houston -144 O/U 9
This game is pretty simple to me. Oakland has had a terrible start to this season and they really do not have any stars that can bring them out of this funk. Today they have Frankie Montas at the helm who last year had a pretty bad FIP of 4.74 with a horrible first start allowing 7 runs in 2 innings vs the Dodgers. Houston’s bullpen this year so far has been decent and they have Jose Urquidy pitching today who also had a bad FIP last year of 4.71 but had a great start this year already pitching at Oakland allowing only 2 earned runs. The hitting between these to teams isn’t even close with Houston ranking 3rd in OPS at .852 while Oakland is second to last at .558. This price is too short for what Oakland actually is this year.
Houston -144 – 2 stars
Kansas City vs Chicago White Sox -132
The Royals are an improved team so far but it is early and I think that the fade train might have to show up here. KC has Mike Minor pitching to day who recorded a 4.64 FIP in 2020. He is a lefty who is a veteran in this league. The White Sox do not have a great pitcher themselves coming up in Dylan Cease who should have ceased at pitching last year recording a 6.36 FIP. The White Sox at least are a good hitting team ranking 5th in WRC+ (which is runs created adjusted for ball barks) to the Royals 9th so far this year and last year the White Sox ranked 6th in WRC+ while the Royals ranked 21st. This doesn’t seem like a massive difference to me to justify laying -132. So why do I like the White Sox here? 2 reasons actually. The White Sox haven’t had to use their bullpen since Wednesday and they are the BEST team hitting against lefties who was first last year against lefties in WRC+ at 142%. I think this trend continues and we should play the Sox today.
Chicago White Sox -132 – 2 stars
