A nice 3-1 Saturday puts us in a great position to end the week. This will be a lighter card today — there are more pitchers and matchups I’d rather observe than put my hard-earned money on just yet– but as always we can find some value. Here are my picks:
Cubs/Pirates first 5 under 4.5 (-115), 2 units: When a pitcher goes up against his former team, I usually think that favors the guy on the mound. Though not always the case, I think Trevor Williams will thrive today against his old ballclub. Unsurprisingly, Pittsburgh is among the worst teams in MLB in batting average thus far at 0.212. Williams shouldn’t have any issue commanding the first half of this game. JT Brubaker gets the nod for the Pirates and he looked good in his first outing, too. Earning a 2.25 ERA and allowing only 1 run in four innings in his first callup against the Reds, Brubaker should look elite again against a Chicago Cubs squad that’s dead last in batting average and has only scored 8 runs in their last 4 games. They might be due some positive regression, but it won’t come in the first 5 innings. Take the early under.
Yankees -1.5 (EVEN), 1 unit: This is a good spot for the Yankees. I know New York fans are already panicking and I don’t blame them, but their bats won’t stay this cold and Jordan Montgomery has more than enough to put away a Rays team that’ll be experimenting on the mound today. Brent Honeywell Jr. gets the promotion and debut start today for Tampa, although they’ll be rotating in Michael Wacha and other relievers as the game progresses. Wacha got his ass handed to him in his debut last Tuesday, giving up 5 runs over five innings of play in a loss. Honeywell Jr. is a great comeback story. Battling through injuries since the onset of his minor league career, he was one of the hottest young prospects in the country before various arm injuries halted his potential. We don’t know what we’ll see from him today and I’ll be quietly cheering for the kid, but the Yankees should be plenty motivated to bring the heat today after yesterday’s embarrassing 5 hit, 0 points showing. Not a great situation for Honeywell Jr. Jordon Montgomery dominated the Orioles in his first start, commanding six scoreless innings. This is what the Yankees do– look extremely bad in spurts, only to flex and go on long winning streaks once they figure a few things out. With a rematch series around the corner against the struggling Blue Jays, this could be the start of that streak.
Rockies win (+105), 1 unit: I’m going to take another shot on the Rockies– God help me. I’m a little concerned about German Marquez’s BAPIB rate thus far, but I trust him to get the job done against DeSclafani and the Giants. The Giants’ two wins against Colorado are more about the Rockies’ failures. San Francisco is one of the worst hitting teams in baseball (under a 0.200 batting average so far in 2021) and they’re still winning games. Give the Giants credit for some great coaching and commanding pitching to this point, but I think the Rockies get back to blasting some balls today. DeSclafani is not as good as he performed in his first contest (1.80 ERA, allowed 1 run in four innings) and I think he gets a little exposed this afternoon. If the Rockies score 4+ runs today, they win this game. I’ll bet on that.
