Kansas City vs Chicago White Sox -130
Same reasoning as yesterday when the game got called for weather. The Royals are an improved team so far but it is early and I think that the fade train might have to show up here. KC has Mike Minor pitching to day who recorded a 4.64 FIP in 2020. He is a lefty who is a veteran in this league. The White Sox do not have a great pitcher themselves coming up in Dylan Cease who should have ceased at pitching last year recording a 6.36 FIP. The White Sox at least are a good hitting team ranking 5th in WRC+ (which is runs created adjusted for ball barks) to the Royals 9th so far this year and last year the White Sox ranked 6th in WRC+ while the Royals ranked 21st. This doesn’t seem like a massive difference to me to justify laying -132. So why do I like the White Sox here? 2 reasons actually. The White Sox haven’t had to use their bullpen since Wednesday and they are the BEST team hitting against lefties who was first last year against lefties in WRC+ at 142%. I think this trend continues and we should play the Sox today.
Chicago White Sox -132 – 2 stars
Cincinnati vs Arizona +106 O/U 9 (-123)
Looking at this game, we can’t ignore what Cincinnati has been doing so far this year. They are the number 1 hitting team being number 1 in OPS at .952 and WRC+ at 156. They average 8.25 runs per game right now. The Diamonbacks have quietly been scoring a few runs themselves at 4.22 per game and rank around 20th in most of the hitting stats. The thing that I see here is that the pitchers in this game are pretty bad with Jose De Leon having an ERA of 18 last year as a reliever and Luke Weaver for Arizona who had a 6.58 ERA and 4.57 FIP in 2020 tells me that some runs certainly can be scored in this game. Both teams were bottom 18 in bullpen last year and not much has changed. Taking the over and paying the juice.
Over 9 – 2 stars
