In case you didn’t see my mini rant on Twitter, let me just restate that what the Nuggets did last night, pulling Jokic late in the 3rd and allowing the Celtics to completely flip the script, was criminal. Fans and bettors across America (wake up, league heads) are invested every single day into these games. The Nuggets were the right side. They dominated Boston with their starters in the lineup. The fact that Denver not only didn’t cover but lost and couldn’t hold up as a parlay leg was insanity. And it’s why football will always be king. The NBA has too many games, too little commitment from its diva players, and it leads to frustrating endings like Sunday. I’ll try to be as mindful as possible but these events are tough to predict. Anyway, even bad beats and bad coaching couldn’t keep us from a decent day– the Sunday post went 2-2 and resulted in positive units. Onto Monday.
Knicks -2 (-110), 1.5 units: This is a much better spot for the Knicks and let’s face it, they need it more. New York has now had two impressive wins in a row, willing themselves in the latter parts of the Memphis and Toronto games to ensure a victory. A big part of that is because of their starters. RJ Barrett has been playing some truly elite basketball. Showing his growth and maturation, the 2nd year Knicks guard doesn’t force shots, is very efficient from the field, and serves as a patient facilitator and leader on the hardwood. Court general Julius Randle and Barrett make a great 1-2 punch in the game’s most high-pressure moments. Heading into Friday’s Memphis game, the Knicks had lost 5 of their last 6 games. They can’t afford to go on another streak like that. The Lakers had an incredible game 2 nights ago at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, which yours truly and hopefully my readers made some good coin off of. When the Lakers are big underdogs like that, with or without their stars in the game, it’s a good bet to make. They still have coach Lebron on the sideline and more importantly, because of King James, there’s an “old-school just-bring-it” attitude in every contest. As much as I love their gumption, they’re on a really tough road stretch now. I think this game flies under, but I like the Knicks side more. They’re healthy, at home, and won’t underestimate LAL like the Nets did.
Grizzlies -2.5 (-110), 2 units: The Bulls will get exposed tonight. For all the trials Memphis has had, and those last two games were true heart-breakers, this is the break they need. Check out my article from yesterday on their game against the Pacers, which I feel they should have won; the Grizzlies should take the same fire and motivation into tonight. It started to show up in the 2nd half but it was too late against Indiana. The Grizzlies are an incredibly balanced team that play very effective defense and have more than enough firepower on offense to keep up with teams that can score a ton of points like Chicago. But I don’t think the Bulls will thrive tonight. Chicago has really struggled since they added Vucevic to their roster, a move that looked great on paper, as they’ve lost 8 of their last 11 games. This is also their fifth road game in a row. Few teams cover like the Grizzlies (they’re 59.3% ATS at home and 60.8% overall, which is 3rd best in the NBA), and they’ll do it again tonight.
Lean, 76ers -3: Just a lean because Dallas is thirsty for a win too, but Luka Doncic was held to only 19 points and 4 assists, one of his most unproductive games of the year, the last time he faced Philadelphia. He also turned the ball over 5 times. That’s called the Ben Simmons effect, which often gets underrated. Philly is absolutely the all-around better team, but Dallas can pull out some unexpected wins, as we’ve learned.
Pelicans win (-130), 1.5 units: This is a sneaky line with the Pelicans listed as only 3 point favorites, and we all know they have their challenges covering ATS (45.3% on the year), but the Kings have been getting SMOKED lately. They’ve now lost 6 in a row by an average of 12.3 point margins. One glaring difference between Sacramento and New Orleans is the way they rebound. The Pelicans have the #1 offensive rebound rate and overall rebound rate in the NBA. Sacramento is dead last in defensive rebounding. That will mean a ton of second-change opportunities and probably a huge game from Zion. I expect the Pelicans to at least win. Don’t blow it, New Orleans!
