It’s an exciting day to bet the association with a ton of games to choose from. We have a few marquee matchups and teams who are starting to feel the pressure of the impending playoff race. The good Lord (or mother earth or Zeus or whatever you believe in) gave me a nice sweet dose of humble pie yesterday, sending my picks to 0-3 overall. I have a good feeling about today’s comeback. Onto the picks!
Lean, Nets +8 (-110): Oh look, Durant won’t play tonight. Eye rollllllll. If you listened to my podcast, you know how I feel about shit like this. I won’t rant here, but the signals NBA players and coaches send to fans in decisions like this are glaring. They don’t care. Good, because we think you’re idiots and you’re losing our respect. Aldridge and Griffin are sitting out of this game, too. Regardless, the Nets still have more than enough firepower to keep this game close. Brooklyn beat Philadelphia with their b-team before; I don’t think that happens tonight, but the Kyrie Irving led Nets could certainly be feisty and competitive. Neither team really needs this game, so it’s reasonable to imagine the Sixers resting or sitting players more often than usual. There won’t be the playoff feel we all wanted to see, unfortunately. I think Nets side has more value but, it’s just a lean.
Spurs -4.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Most books have this line around 5 or 5.5 now, which is a bet I still like. This is a play on a much more consistent team who should be plenty motivated as they fight for a playoff spot in the Western Conference. Since the All-Star break, Toronto is a sad 4-15. Losers of 4 of their last 5 games and with Freddie VanFleet likely to remain out, arguably their most dependable scorer, the Raptors have to be struggling to find anything to get excited or motivated for. Away from home in the perpetually distracting land of Florida, I wouldn’t blame Lowry and company if they were more interested in beers on the beach than any chance at resurrecting this season. It’s not going to happen, especially not with well-balanced teams like the Pacers and Knicks guarding their playoff spots. San Antonio is healthy and ex-Raptor DeMar DeRozan loves playing against his former team, averaging 22 points and over 7 rebounds and 7 assists in 5 reunion games against the Raptors. Toronto is also terrible at securing defensive rebounds, ranking near the very bottom of the league in DRR (defensive rebound rate). That’s an issue for a disciplined Spurs team that sticks to their assignments and knows how to capitalize on another team’s mistakes. It’s not surprising that Popovich’s team is ranked #1 in the NBA in turnover ratio. Bet the Spurs.
Knicks win (+120), 1.5 units: This is the fourth game in 5 days for the Knicks, who have now won 3 games in a row, and they hope to keep their playoff aspirations alive tonight against the surging Pelicans. Also winners of 3 straight, the Pelicans recently had an impressive win over Philly before taking care of bottom-feeders in the Cavs and Kings. The Knicks 3-game win streak is a little more impressive. A tough fought OT-forced victory over Memphis and then an overwhelming defensive flex against LAL has New York gaining more confidence again after a slump in early April.
New York will be able to control this game. One thing that the Knicks do really well, and it confuses and throws off good offenses, is play at a horrifically slow pace. Horrific for the opponent, that is. No one in the NBA allows less points than New York, they’re top 3 in defensive efficiency according to Hollinger’s metrics, and they play at the slowest tempo (30th) in the association. I’ve said it all year and I’ll say it again– the Pelicans thrive when and only when they can assert themselves down the court. Throughout the season, their tempo has increased. In the winter they were sitting in the deep 20s in pace; now they sit at 14th overall. And as most of us know, they really struggle on defense. Despite Zion and Adams’ ability to snag rebounds, and they’re damn good at it, something gets lost on the defensive end. Gaping holes and disjointed schemes has New Orleans ranked 28th in defensive efficiency and 26th in points allowed per game. Julius Randle and RJ Barrett and are becoming a dynamic scoring duo. The Knicks are averaging 115 ppg during their win-streak and that was against top 10 defenses in Memphis, Toronto and LAL. What will they do to New Orleans? This is a bad matchup for the Pelicans, even for the burgeoning superstar in Zion Williamson. Julius Randle is not intimidated or afraid of Zion’s abilities and he’ll test the youngster tonight. Knicks win.
Heat +6 (-110), 2 units: I called this out on my podcast and I’m sticking to it. I know the Heat are on a really tough road stretch right now. They’re facing two of the Western Conference titans in back-to-back nights in Phoenix and now Denver; quite a tall task. But I love the Miami side tonight and this line is telling us the books respect Miami, too. Jamal Murray’s injury, although I don’t think it spells death and destruction for Denver’s potential, is not a small loss. The 24 year old was averaging a solid 21.2 ppg for his team and despite playing through injuries all year, has a knack for making clutch shots and getting to the foul line when it matters most. Who’s going to make up for those 21 points? Certainly Jokic can contibute even more, but Aaron Gordon is not a natural scorer. He’s a great role-player, but not a offensive-magnate by any means. Dozier and Barton? Meh. Look, the Nuggets are still a really good team, but I love how resilient and tough Miami is. Do you think there was any chance, ANY chance, that Miami’s starters would be sitting tonight for “rest.” Hell no. Jimmy Butler leads Miami with an attitude and grit that’s hard to measure and they’ll bring it tonight. As tough as this road stretch for Miami is, their next game is in 2 days against Minnesota. That’s nothing exhausting to think about. I also love that Tyler Herro is playing more minutes and starting to gain some steam. According to SportsKeeda, Herro has scored 18 ppg and shot 49% from the field, including 41% from beyond the arc, in his last 7 games. The young man may be rounding into playoff form and that’ll be needed for a Heat lineup that, at times, struggles to keep up with good offensive teams like the Nuggets. This game should be testy and lower scoring (total is set at 209 and it’s right)– that makes me favor the dog, especially a dog that knows how to play defense.
Live bet the Wizards/Kings game: Like I mentioned in my podcast that posted today, this is a wait and see type of game. The total is appropriately huge at 242 but it will instantly fluctuate once this game starts. If these teams get off to insane offensive beginnings and end up scoring 65-70+ in the first two quarters, look to play a live under. The total should move close to or into the 250s. If these two squads act like they suddenly understand how to play defense and/or the scoring starts off slow, bet the over on a deflated number. I would also bet contrarian in the third quarter. In other words, if the points are piling up in the first half, bet the third quarter under as long as it’s reasonable (58.5, 59.5, etc.). If they start sluggish and if there’s below-average scoring in the first half, bet that third quarter to fly over. Check me out on Twitter during this game– I’ll try my best to immediately jump on and share the side I’m on.
