Kelvin Gastelum vs Robert Whittaker -260
This should be a good main event between two seasoned fighters trying to move back up in the ranks in the middleweight class. Robert Whittaker has a very solid 22-5 record but he has only lost once since 2014 and that was to Israel Adesanye which we all know is very forgivable. Kelvin Gastelum on the other hand had to prove himself on the Ultimate Fighter to get in the UFC back in 2013 and has since put together a nice record of 16-6. Kelvin has a ton of heart and has also fought the best of the best in this weight class taking Israel Adesanye and Darren Till to the distance. Looking at how these two fighters match up, Robert Whittaker is definitely the better striker landing 4.5 significant strikers per minute to Kelvin Gastelum’s 3.6. Gastelum might have an edge on the ground here and that is where he can score some points. Kelvin 1.22 take downs per 15 minutes to Robert’s .43. Both guys are capable of submitting their opponents but neither one has done it since 2014. One thing that is interesting to me is Gastelum’s jaw. He has never been knocked out and has only lost twice by submission and four times by decision. I think that Whitaker is the better overall technical fighter here but he is at a massive price at -260 and this makes me lean the other way. One think for sure is that these fighters have went to the scorecards for the most part in their recent fights to decide the winner. Kelvin has went to decision 4 of his last 5 fights and Whittaker has done the same. I think that the safest play here being that Gastelum has never been knocked out is the over 4.5 rounds at -140.
Over 4.5 rounds -14 – 2 stars
Andrei Arlovski vs Chase Sherman -105
This should be actually a decent fight to watch on this card. Andrei is a statue in the UFC at 42 years old with 30 wins and 20 losses. He is a tough dude that has plenty of heart. Andrei will take on anybody but at this age of 42 years old, I can’t imagine that he keeps holding up. Andrei goes into fights head first and takes an absolute beating. He does last to decision from time to time but when he steps up in class, he usually gets taken out rather quickly. Now Chase Sherman is a younger fighter with little UFC experience but he at least has good experience in the Octagon being that this is his 22nd fight. Sherman is 15-6 with 14 KO/TKO’s and only 1 decision. His losses were 4 KO/TKOs and 2 decisions. As a matter of fact, Sherman really doesn’t go to decision too often with only 3 in his whole career. Now Sherman hasn’t really hasn’t faced nearly the amount of competition that Andrei has but I do like the fact that he has won his last 4 fights in a row with 3 of them in the first round and one just 49 seconds into the second round. I am not 100% sure that Chase will win this fight but I do think that he wins or loses fast. I think that the real value in this fight is under 2.5 at plus money.
Under 2.5 rounds – 2 stars
