Happy Friday! Another day another dollar in MLB– we’re 28-20 thus far (58%). Let’s keep it rollin’ into the weekend!
Nationals -1.5 (-105), 2 units: I’m taking a shot on ol’ Mr. National today. Washington isn’t starting off the year the way they would have liked. They’re 1-3 at home and 3-7 overall and their play has been volatile. They present a good batting average but they don’t have a lot of runs to show for it (earning 3.44 per game, ranked 28th overall in MLB). Even their long-time ace Max Scherzer, who starts today, has had an up-and-down genesis in 2021. In his first start, which was ironically a win for Washington, he got slaughtered, allowing 5 hits and 5 home runs in six innings. Maybe slaughtered isn’t the right word, but Max is typically elite at preventing homeruns, posting under 1 homerun per 9 innings nearly his entire career. Scherzer looked way better in his most recent start against the Dodgers, allowing only 3 hits and 1 run over 6 innings. That’s nearly impossible these days against LAD, so that’s a good sign for Max. Arizona starts Taylor Widener today, the awkward-shaped 26 year old who started off his career playing for a Yankees’ minor league affiliate. Widener has looked solid in 2 starts so far, owning a 2.45 ERA. His minor league stint showed a lot of promise until 2019, where the numbers took a sharp downward turn. Scherzer has never lost to the Diamondbacks and I expect him to out-play the young Widener, who was still learning basic math when Scherzer earned his first start in the majors. Those Nationals’ bats are certainly due a little positive regression, too. This feels like a great spot for the home team to flex.
Giants win (-134), 1.5 units: Ya gotta love what we’ve seen from Anthony DeSclafani so far. Then again, I like what I see from the Giants pitching in general. San Francisco sits at 3rd overall in runs earned against per game, 4th overall at hits allowed per 9 innings, and 5th overall at walks + hits per inning pitched, all categories that show how strong San Francisco’s defense and pitching has been thus far. DeSclafani is a big part of those results. The former Reds starter and 30 year old looks to be in his prime. So far he’s pitched 11 innings over 2 games, earned a 0.82 ERA, a 2.04 FIP, has allowed no homeruns, and has only allowed 10 hits while striking out 12. Showing a command reminiscent of his 2016 year in Cincinnati, DeSclafani has only permitted 1 lonely run in 2021. We like that heading into a matchup with the Marlins. Miami couldn’t find their bats to start the season but a little trip to Hot-Lanta did them some good, scoring an outrageous 31 runs in 4 games. Of course one abysmal pitching contest that amounted to 14 runs, 22 total on the day, in game 2 of that series had something to do with that. Miami is mid-tier in batting average and low-to-mid-tier in slugging percentage but they certainly have talent. Jesus Aguilar seems to always find a way to get on base and Adam Duvall already has 4 homeruns. Miami rolls out reserve picture Daniel Castano today, who looked good last year. In 2020, Castano posted a 3.03 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 29.2 innings during seven appearances and 6 starts. Not too shabby. In what should be a low scoring affair, I still see the value on San Francisco. Their defense and pitching has been excellent and I don’t think it’s a fluke– they know how to keep the game within reach and should be able to control this one. Give me the surprising, upstart Giants to snag another W behind DeSclafani.
Dodgers first 5 (-150), 2 units: The Dodgers are motivated and able to overcome games against teams they routinely beat, which is easier said than done over such a long season, so how motivated will they be tonight against the hyped up Padres? Very. Walker Buehler picked right up where he left off last year– he looks fantastic– posting a 1.50 ERA and 2.88 FIP in 2 starts so far. In 2 wins and 12 innings of play, he’s struck out 8 hitters and only allowed 10 hits. The Padres draft choice Ryan Weathers looks the part– he’s a 21 year old hot-shot with solid velocity and command, but this is a big spot for the youngster. I’m sure San Diego will be ready to roll out their bullpen, which is one of the best in baseball, but Weathers has held his own in 3 games. He’s permitted only 2 hits over six innings and he’s struck out 7 at bat. Over 1 strikeout per inning in the majors so far? Not bad. This spot and LAD’s bats are too much for most pitchers in MLB, though, especially when Justin Turner mans the plate. Turner simply cannot be stopped so far. In 13 games he already has 4 homeruns, 14 RBIs and yields a .432 batting average. And it’s not like the rest of the Dodger’s lineup is subpar- they lead the majors in most offensive categories. I’ll fade the bullpen competition and go with the red-hot champs against a rookie pitcher. It just makes good sense, doesn’t it?
