A lovely 2-1 day yesterday (probably a 3-0 day if Kawhi didn’t sit) adds to our 57% win rate in the association. Like I said in my MLB article today, please excuse the next 5 days of my posts— My bachelor party starts today until Sunday morning so my time will be more limited. I’ll still be putting out daily picks but the cards will be lighter and the write-ups will be packaged very tightly (shorter). It would be irresponsible for me to just put out picks if I can’t give it the same amount of attention. Onto today’s plays!
Suns -3.5 (-110), 1.5 units: I think this line isn’t completely wrong even if the 76ers are completely healthy. At home and with all their starters, I guess it would be closer to a pick-em or Philly -1, and in that case I’d like Phoenix even more. Still, the Suns are about as consistent and resilient as it gets in the NBA. They’re also one of the most balanced (6th in offensive efficiency, 5th in defensive efficiency). If Simmons and Harris both play this would be a tougher line to cover, but I have a feeling Simmons will sit again. To still be questionable due to an illness, with everything happening in a new COVID world, the odds are he’ll sit. It isn’t often you get Phoenix at a reduced line and most games end beyond one-possession leads. I’m on the Suns.
Bulls-2 (-110), 1.5 units: The Bulls aren’t a great team but they deserve more respect than this. Without Zach LaVine they don’t have as much depth but Vucevic has held Chicago on his broad shoulders in their last two wins. The Bulls habitually defeat inferior teams and this should be no different. Plus, they still have an outside shot at a playoff berth. Bet daaaaa Bulls.
Warriors/Wizards under 240.5 (-110), 1 unit: Usually I champion big totals like this but the Warriors have a sneaky good defense. The pace war (Washington is #1 and Golden State is #2 in tempo) worries me a bit, but I could see this being a chippy game with big superstars like Curry and Beal and Westbrook showing some extra zeal on defense. Again, these teams look in the mirror and they each other– they’re high tempo teams predicated on excellent shooting (which obviously doesn’t always work out, just check their records). Something has to give and I wouldn’t be shocked if one team threw a wrench in the others’ expectations and slowed the game down. I’ll take a surprising under, but just for 1 unit.
Lean, Jazz 11 (-110): Houston’s been a little feisty lately and they’re at home in a good spot, so this is just a lean. Towards the end of the season, as we are, hefty favorite lines aren’t as inconceivable to hit. This should be a blowout.
Hawks/Knicks under 218.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Atlanta is one of the more efficient offenses in the league (8th in offensive efficiency according to Hollinger metrics) but that won’t scare New York. I want to take the Knicks side, of course, since they’ve now won 7 straight and even more importantly for us, they’ve covered 10 straight. Love me some Julius Randle and RJ Barrett, and their defense is an ode to the past and a lot of fun to watch. But Atlanta is no chump these days, either. The Hawks have quietly won 9 of their last 11 games and they look like a very complete team. Capela has been DOMINANT under the rim, averaging an insane 17.5 rebounds in his last 6 games. On the season he averages 14.5. That’s impressive shit. Instead of taking a side here, I think an under play is the better bet. This should be a testy game with a playoff feel and I think the Knicks can control the pace. If the first half flies over the total, look to hit a live under. New York loves to slow down the tempo and dominate defensively in the second halves of games.
Mavericks -10.5 (-110), 2 units: Great spot for Dallas here. Off two losses and in need of wins to stay in playoff contention, the Mavericks head home after 2 days of rest and they get a nice little gift in the Pistons. Normally a let-down angle would be part of a lopsided game like this but Dallas can’t risk a 3-game slide, especially not with an increasingly healthy Lakers squad visiting tomorrow and Saturday. This needs to be a get-right, feel-good game for Dallas and I expect max-effort in this contest. The Pistons, although tough at times, shouldn’t be able to keep up. We just need a tiny bit more than a simple double-digit win for this to hit, which feels very reasonable.
