I’m writing this on a plane with a Bloody Mary beside my laptop so, things are in full bachelor party mode as I cruise south (not mad about it). Not my best showing yesterday but we’ll try to make up for it here on a thirsty Thursday. Onto my picks!
Suns -3 (-115), 1.15 units: At first glance you would think this is a better spot for Boston. Off a hard-fought win last night in Philly, where the Suns once again proved how elite and how resilient they are, Phoenix has to turn around only 24 hours later and face a Celtics team that’s looked much better the past 2 weeks. And Boston is at home. Advantage Boston, right? I don’t see it that way. Firstly, the Suns are the considerably better team. They now sit at top 6 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and they could edge out the Jazz as the #1 seed in the playoffs if they continue playing at this level. They’re also healthy and they’ll get a rare 3 day rest after tonight’s game. The Celtics have to turn around and travel to the Barclays Center tomorrow night to face the Nets– it’s absolutely reasonable to imagine they’re looking ahead and more concerned about that game. With mounting injuries and uncertainties heading into tonight for the home team, I have to take Phoenix once again. If this lose, so be it, but they’ve been a top 5 ATS team all year. Go Suns!
76ers +8 if all starters play (-110), 1.5 units: I called it on my podcast and the books agree– this could be a prime spot for the Bucks to boat-race the Eastern Conference leading Sixers. That being said this is way too many points, even off a back to back, if all the Sixers starters play. The latest updates are telling me that Simmons and Harris are probable and there are no signs that Embiid will sit, so I have to side with Philly. If this line drops to under 5, I’d be on Milwaukee.
Spurs -8 (-115), 1.5 units: There’s a reason why this line is inflated. San Antonio is in a great spot, at home, and they need wins to remain in the playoff hunt. The Spurs are 53.6% ATS after a loss and should blowout a vastly inferior team. Should.
Lakers +3.5 (-110), 2 units: The return of “The Brow” will make a big difference tonight. Besides their leader Lebron still sitting on the sidelines (although he’ll undoubtedly be coaching up and motivating his team), the Lakers are getting really healthy and that means they’ll be very dangerous from this point on, assuming they remain healthy. Anthony Davis brings an expectation of at least 20 points and more importantly, he’s an elite defender and shark at the rim. That will make things really difficult for Kristaps Porzingis and the Dallas front court. LAL’s guards are more than capable of giving Luka a tough time, too. Look for an upset here tonight– this is a rejuvenated Lakers unit off 2 days of rest and with one of their stars back in the lineup, which means less pressure and more room for the supporting cast to over-perform. I’m all over LAL.
