Not gonna lie, I was LIVID about that Warriors total not hitting last night. They were shooting around 50% from the field all night, scored 107 with 5 minutes left, and somehow couldn’t muster over 114 points. Killing me. That was one of my favorite bets this week so, I was a tad disappointed. Moving on, the 57% win rate still reigns and we head into a nice little Friday night lineup in the association. Onto my picks:
76ers -9 (110), 2 units: This is not a fair matchup. Even with the great coaching and improvement we’ve seen from Atlanta, the value is on Philadelphia and quite frankly, this line is probably too small. For perhaps the first time all year, the 76ers are completely healthy, while the laundry list of injuries for Atlanta is long and onerous. The Hawks need to keep winning to stay in the playoff race, sure, but the 76ers also need to keep winning to secure the #2 seed in the East. The Bucks suffered a bad loss to Houston last night, but Milwaukee has been steadily creeping up on the 76ers spot throughout late April. Embiid and one other star would be too much for this Hawks’ lineup– all the stars and a healthy roster should mean a blowout. No more leaning on plays like this– I’m on Philly for 2 units.
Wizards -6.5 (-110), 2 units: An exceptional LAL defense couldn’t stop the Wizards, so you damn sure better believe that the Cavaliers (like we saw a few games ago) won’t stop them either. The Wizards last game against the Lakers really impressed me. Washington was at home, sure, but Anthony Davis and the Lakers were no doubt motivated to start accumulating wins and climb in the West standings, but they could not overcome or deny this streaking Wizards unit. Beal had 27 points, Westbrook had yet another triple-double (how he’s able to rebound at his size is absolutely astounding), and it felt like the Wizards sort of coasted to that win. Every time Davis and the Lakers didn’t relent, Washington overcame and added on to their lead. The Washington Wizards are playing some motivated basketball right now as they make a push for the playoffs and if I were other teams in the East, I wouldn’t want them to get there. With virtually no injuries and a newfound chemistry between Beal and Westbrook, Washington could be a team to contend with as long as they can bring at least a modicum of defense. The Wizards have moved up to #20 overall in defensive efficiency, a stark improvement, and recently they’ve become a top 10 ATS team, too (covering 54.8% of the time on the season). The Cavaliers are absolutely obliterated by injuries right now and with the spirit Washington is bringing, I don’t think they stand a chance. I’m on the Wiz-kids to cover.
Suns -4.5 (-110), 1.5 units: This is a great spot for the Suns to really put the league on notice. Coming off two great wins against the Knicks and Clippers, Phoenix is at home to host the Western Conference’s first place team in the Utah Jazz. Just because Donovan Mitchell and Conley are out won’t mean that the Jazz will lay down tonight. Pride and playoff positioning are more than enough for motivation, but the Suns are playing at a different level right now and I love them to cover at home. A line of -4.5 is tricky– it means if you favor that side, they have to cover by a solid two possessions. Two elite teams like this, battling it out all game, often creates a one-possession situation in the 4th, but I think the Suns can control and maintain a lead throughout this contest. The Suns are so extremely well balanced, I don’t have to tell you that by now, and when Chris Paul and Devin Booker and in-sync they’re really difficult to stop. Phoenix has been one of the ATS leaders all season and while the Jazz are one of the top teams too, they’re only a mid-tier 50% ATS on the road. The Suns? They cover 63.6% at home– which is good for top 3 in the association. Utah has to turn around and travel back home to face Toronto tomorrow night; the Suns get a rest day before traveling to face one of the worst teams in basketball in OKC. Something special is brewing in Phoenix and I expect the Suns to step up and take advantage of an opportunity to secure that #1 spot. Go Suns!
