Another great day of NBA betting as I hit all 3 picks yesterday. At 167-124, I highly doubt any records compare to yours truly in the association through 3 months (not so humble brag, but it’s true). Regardless, I’m happy to keep chugging along and knowing many of you are winning because of it makes my day. Let’s keep it rollin’!
Warriors/Rockets over 233 (-110), 1.5 units: This is a pretty great setup for the Warriors; I just wish it wasn’t in the middle of a little road trip. If it wasn’t I may be taking their side at -8 tonight. Golden State visits New Orleans for a back-to-back in 2 days, fresh off a disappointing loss to the Timberwolves 2 nights ago in Minnesota. The lack of front court depth affects the Warriors all too often, and not having Kelly Oubre Jr., who I hope returns tonight, clearly affects their ability to score. If Oubre Jr. is not in the lineup, expect Curry to once again shoulder the offensive load for Golden State. Any player prop on his total points probably won’t be enough in that scenario (in other words, hammer it). Either way, many of these NBA teams will start to show clear motivational advantages because they actually have a shot at the playoffs. The Warriors currently sit in the 10th spot in the Western Conference and can’t afford to blow many more games. They’ll depend on their offense tonight as their defensive rankings (9th in defensive efficiency, 21st in points allowed) have slipped a little. The Rockets have shown an ability to produce points and keep pace with the NBA’s fastest teams, ranking 6th in tempo, right near Golden State who sits at 2nd. The lack of defensive prowess and speed of this game, combined with some truly elite scorers, should foster an easy over.
Pacers -6.5 (-110), 1 unit: I really wish Sabonis was playing and that the Pacers weren’t so banged up, but OKC isn’t healthy either. Dort and Gilgeous-Alexander will be sitting out this game and I trust Indiana, who’s sitting on the border of the playoffs at 9th in the Eastern Conference, to muster some good basketball here and cover this line. They’re plenty motivated and there’s a chance Jeremy Lamb returns tonight, which would surely be a nice boost. Indiana got waxed by Brooklyn Friday and I regret not betting on that, but OKC couldn’t be more different than the Nets. Ranking dead last in both point differential and spread differential according to WinnersandWhiners, it seems the Thunder could care less about ending the season on a high note. Bet Indiana.
Grizzlies -11 (-115), 2 units: The Grizzlies kindaaaaa sucked last night and they still beat Orlando by 17 points. This line is no where near where it should be. The Magic have a C-team playing right now and although there’s some motivation for these guys to prove themselves and earn more playing time, their talent cannot compare to a healthy Memphis team (or any real NBA team for that matter). The Grizzlies have a ton to play for as they vie for playoff positioning (if the postseason started today, they would earn the final spot in the Western Conference). Ja Morant was visibly upset by his performance last night. Expect the Grizzlies to win by much more than 11 in this contest.
Parlay- Pelicans win and Pelicans/T-Wolves over 238, 1 unit to win 2 units: I love to see the Timberwolves doing well. Early in the season I thought they could be a feisty team throughout the year and they’re proving how well they can play when everyone’s healthy. Rubio and Towns and Edwards are in-sync and finally getting to see D’Angelo Russell healthy has been a treat, as Minnesota has now won 5 of their last 6 games. They’re in a terrific spot here today at home since they’ll get an extremely rare 4 days off after the host the Pelicans tonight. At +3.5 underdogs, I’d probably favor the Timberwolves side and that might be a good way to hedge this parlay. The Pelicans are without Steven Adams, which I hate, but here’s the deal: New Orleans really needs to win this game to stay in the playoff race. Zion and Ball and Ingram are more than capable of leading their team to a victory tonight and we’ve seen what they can do when they’re focused and playing in-sync. Despite Minnesota’s recent success, they’re still one of the worst defenses in the league (28th in points allowed and 28th in defensive efficiency). The Pelicans tempo has been steadily increasing throughout the season. They’ve been through a rough stretch recently against teams like San Antonio and LAC and Denver but a porous Minnesota defense, and a foe that’s feeling a little too confident, is a good matchup for New Orleans tonight. The Pelicans host Golden State in back to back games Monday so the time to win is now. Take one side of this bet or both for a parlay!
Wizards/Mavericks over 231.5 (-110), 2 units: I don’t want to step in front of either of these teams right now so I can’t take a side (Dallas is favored by 5.5), but I’d definitely lean the Wizards. What I will be bullish about is the over (are you sensing a theme in this article?). Washington has been absolutely electric on offense lately. Instead of giving you an average, let me show you how many points they’ve scored over the last 11 games: 122, 116, 143, 119, 129, 118, 119, 121, 117, 123, and 125. Okay now I’ll tell you the average– that’s 123 ppg over that span. Incredible, and consistent. Dallas is a mid-tier defense and while they don’t play tremendously fast like their opponent tonight (Washington ranks #1 in the NBA), the Mavericks are a top 10 team in offensive efficiency. Porzingis went down within 21 minutes of the Mavericks’ game against the Pistons 2 nights ago so I’m not sure if he’ll suit up. If he sits I like that more for the Wizards offense, as Porzingis absence would leave a big hole in their front court (cue Russel dunks x 5). I’d sprinkle a little money-line action on the Wizards if I were you, but I love the over here.
