The 2021 Kentucky Derby Plays and Predictions

The 147th run for the roses is here and it is going to be as exciting as ever.  The weather looks great and the mint juleps will be flowing!  What would make this wonderful event even more exciting is if we could win some coin!  Just a fair warning, I am not a year round horse bettor, but I do pay attention and bet the big races with some of the others sprinkled in throughout the year.   The big favorite in this race is (14) Essential Quality going off at 2-1.  This thoroughbred is undefeated and a deserving favorite at that.   The distance is this race at 1 and 1/4 mile or ten furlongs.  This longer distance should not affect Essential Quality being that his sire is Tapit who produced a bunch of Belmont (longer distance) winners.  The key thing that I see in this race is that the 2nd tier horses in this field are all pretty equal to each other.  I really do not see anyone sticking out much except for maybe the Santa Anita derby winner (15) Rock Your World at 5-1 who is also unbeaten yet really still unchallenged up to this point.   The interesting thing to me is that Bob Baffert only has one horse in this race at (8) Medina Spirit who has won or took 2nd place in all of his 5 races.  He could be due for a big race or a bad one but his price at 15-1 sure looks tempting to me having such a good trainer and all.  Rock your world, and Medinya Spirit are my two horses that I have keyed in on due to the price and upside.  I do not want Essential quality to beat me so I am pressing him in the number 1 spot.  I also like (9) Hot Rod Charlie some with (17) highly motivated as well as the (1) horse Known Agenda who drew the rail and has improved his Beyers in every race thus far.  The rail could be good or bad this race so I will leave it at that.  There are two relatively unknown horses with the (5) Sainthood and the (12) Helium that would make a massive payday so I sprinkled them in the exotics as well.  My prediction in this race is the (15) Rock your world to sneak by (14) Essential quality for the win with Medina Spirit running 3rd to hit the show.  Remember to only bet what you can afford to lose, have fun and best of luck to everyone!

Total Ticket Spend:  $403 (you could go half at $201.50)