Light day and light card for me, but there’s definitely some great value out there.
Brewers win (+108), 1.5 units: The wrong team is favored here. That gut-sucking loss late on Sunday can’t feeling great for Philly heading into tonight. I nearly placed (glad I didn’t) a $100 bet at +1600 odds in the 9th for the Phillies to pull out the win and they probably should have. Either way, the Brewers have owned the Phillies in recent past and Vince Velasquez (6.57 ERA over 12.1 innings) has been very hittable in the brief outings we’ve seen him. I’ll take the better team and better rotation (not to mention a team that’s a very comfortable 9-3 on the road so far) in Milwaukee for + money.
Rockies -1.5 (+160), 1 unit: The San Francisco Giants have gotten off to a promising start in 2021 but that’s largely thanks to exceptional pitching. Their bats have been anything but exceptional, ranking in the bottom quadrant in many offensive statistics thus far, including hits per game and batting average. That could be a problem tonight against Colorado. The Rockies love their mountainous fortress at Coors Field and this feels like a good setup behind German Marquez (3.13 ERA and only 0.83 HR/9 innings at home) and an offense that averages 5.9 runs per game at home. Aaron Sanchez (2.22 ERA over 24.1 innings) has looked impressive so far but he hasn’t started in Denver yet. This is also a revenge game for Marquez, who had one of his worst performances of the season last week, allowing 4 hits and 4 runs in just 4 innings against the same Giants. The value lies with a Rockies team that could quickly gain margin.
Orioles win (+113), 1.5 units: The wrong team might be favored here, too. The Orioles have been playing really well lately, getting great performances by their starting pitchers and solid work from their bullpen. They’ve won 3 of their last 4 games, including a series win at Oakland that I was personally very was impressed by. Seattle will commit to a bullpen game tonight after they secured a win against an Angels team that suddenly became ice cold at home-plate. That was more about LAA’s let-down-spot than it was a good Seattle team. I trust the confident hitters and pitchers of Baltimore more so why not take advantage of another + money value play. Go O’s!
