Another good night in NBA Tuesday, going 3-1 in our bets. Too bad the Nets didn’t pull through for us, but that’s why we don’t like them as champions this year– BAD defense! Onto my Cinco de Mayo picks!
Suns -1 (-110), 2 units: The Suns are only 1 point favorites on the road for a reason– the Hawks are a dangerous team right now. Behind the front court dominance of Clint Capela and solid guard play of Trae Young, the Hawks are finding ways to win and they sit at 5th in the Eastern Conference. Atlanta doesn’t want to fall in those standings since the closer you get to that tricky 7th seed, the closer you are to one of those damn “play-in tournament” games. Unfortunately the Suns still want to win, too. Phoenix shouldn’t be any less motivated tonight as they defend their #1 seed in the West and look to stay atop the seedings when the postseason begins. The Suns aren’t covering like they did earlier in the season but they’re still ending the victors, riding a 5 game winning streak into this contest. Although the Hawks are talented and resilient, the Suns are all that and more. I worry how the Hawks’ 21st ranked defense (Hollinger Metrics) will fend off the top 5 offense of Phoenix. The top 6 defense of the Suns will be a problem, too. If you had to define Phoenix by one word all year it would be consistency. They win, they play well on both sides of the ball, they stay healthy, and they have a great leader in Chris Paul. It’s rare you’ll find a line this giving on Phoenix again before the playoffs– hammer it.
Grizzlies -3.5 (-110), 2 units: You could surely argue that the healthy Timberwolves are playing better than the Grizzlies these days. You could. I just don’t care. Memphis’ recent struggles (they’ve lost 4 of their last 5) only makes me like this game more. The Grizzlies need to win, they sit 9th in the West, and they need to do it on this easy 3 game road trip that starts tonight. Detroit and Toronto are later this week. Three wins would mean a lot to secure their place in at least the play-in games and the Grizzlies, for all their recent woes, are still a way better and more balanced unit than Minnesota. (Minnesota is rated 28th on defense, for example, while Memphis is 8th). Another line, another steal. I’m all over it.
Wizards/Bucks over 243.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Yea I’m not gonna even explain this one, much. Bucks play insanely fast at home (cue Giannis running full speed trampling over guards that look like ants compared to him), and the Wizards lately can’t seem to not score 125+ points. Please. Over over over and if it doesn’t hit, it’s just a blatant F-U- from the gambling Gods, which I may or may not deserve.
Knicks +3.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Knicks are the ATS leader overall and they’re not too shabby on the road either, hitting at a rate of 65.6%. They’re at the start of a truly horrific part of their road trip, where they’ll have to visit Phoenix Friday and then LAC on Sunday. Oh yea and then they face the Lakers, still in LA, on Tuesday. Sheesh. But I care not. The Knicks will win one of these tough games and I think this may be the spot. Jokic is the leader and commander of Denver but it can’t be easy mustering all these wins against quality opponents. Isn’t the Joker tired yet? They’ll host Utah on Friday, which is a game they probably care more about. The Knicks are healthy and energized and can’t seem to not cover lately. I’ll go with the trend and sprinkle some money-line action here, too.
Spurs +6.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Spurs really need to start winning and winning NOW if they want to make the play-in games and postseason. They sit at 10th in the West, which is the final spot to secure extra playing time. The Jazz probably care about the 2nd seed or their chances of getting a 1st seed too, but they have Denver on the horizon in two days. Could they be looking over their shoulder? Perhaps. San Antonio is the ATS leader on the road, covering an insane 70% of the time, while the Jazz are covering 65.5% of the time. That’s tied with the Knicks for the best in the NBA. Still, the Spurs are the more desperate team and I expect this showdown to have a genuine playoff feel. That should mean more defense and a close game that’s decided in the 4th quarter. I’ll take the dog.
