Well we finished under .500 yesterday, which isn’t typical of these NBA articles (in case you don’t realize), with some surprising no-covers by the Knicks and Spurs and a loss by the Suns. Moving on, we’re still hitting 57% on over 300 NBA picks this year, let’s go!
Bulls -4 (-110), 1.5 units: This is a really tough bet for me to pull the trigger on but unfortunately, I think it’s the right side. I doubted Charlotte earlier in the season (Hornets fans on Twitter weren’t very happy about it) and I understated how good LaMelo Ball is. He still has a long way to go as a leader and NBA star but the kid is talented and when he’s healthy, he’s an instant sparkplug for his team. That being said, he can’t do it alone. Charlotte is SO injured tonight it’s silly: Bridges, Darling, Graham, Hayward, Martin– all out or doubtful. At least it looks like PJ Washington may play, but Rozier and Ball and Washington can’t do it all. The Hornets aren’t electric in any way; they just play good team basketball. They’re a mid-tier basketball team and the stats support that. Another reason why I hate picking this side is because I really don’t like the Bulls. I called them out as pretenders back in January and it turns out I’m more than right. Sure they’ve dealt with injuries but what team hasn’t? They’re shallow on defense and too volatile on offense. That being said, their young star Zach LaVine returns tonight and it looks like Vucevic will play, too. They’re healthy and the news out of Chicago sounds like they’re motivated and still hold an outside belief that they can make the playoffs. They won’t, but good for them. All signs point towards an overwhelming and overperforming night for the Bulls and I have to follow that narrative, as much as I hate it. Both of these teams play tomorrow night on their home floors, though it’s more likely Chicago will lose Friday against the Celtics (the Hornets play Orlando). Maybe Charlotte doesn’t feel like they need this as much, but Chicago surely does. I’m on the Bulls with a big SIGH.
Nets/Mavericks first quarter over 59.5 (-115), 1.5 units and Brooklyn -3.5 (-110), 1 unit: Two separate bets. I keep playing these 1st quarter angles and they keep working. Often in these big spotlight games between two teams everyone wants to watch, especially close to playoff time, the game can really slow down towards the end. We’ve seen it recently in the Nets/Bucks games and we could see it again tonight. Dallas likes to play at a much slower pace than Brooklyn (23rd in tempo), though it usually works out well since they have a top 10 offense according to Hollinger’s efficiency ratings. I’m sure it’ll work again tonight, especially since Brooklyn can’t cover shit these days. The Nets are 22nd in the NBA in points allowed, averaging 114.5 permitted per game. That won’t hold up in the playoffs and I don’t think it holds up in this game either, especially early. Neither of these teams really need this game in any realistic way, but the Mavericks, at home, are definitely in a better spot. They have an upcoming doubleheader against the lowly Cavaliers around the corner, while the Nets have to travel to Denver on Saturday as their road trip trudges on. Still, Kleber and Porzingis are out so much of the Mavericks’ offense will lean on Doncic, and I’m sure Durant and Kyrie will be ready to roll after 2 straight losses to Milwaukee. I’ll throw a unit on the Nets to assert themselves tonight in Dallas, while I love another first quarter over bet thanks to Brooklyn and their 1st placed offense pushing the pace.
Wizards/Raptors over 236 (-110), 1.5 units: Like my great Aunt Margie always used to say: I may be dumb but I’m not stupid. This total has been bet higher and higher and for good reason– there may not be a high enough total for the Wizards these days. In case you didn’t see my Tweet earlier today, the Wizards have been electric over the past 14 games, averaging 126 ppg since April 12th. In that span, they’re 11-3 straight up. I can’t get a good handle on who’s in and who’s out tonight for Toronto, but it sounds like most of their starters and stars are in the lineup, including Siakam, Lowry, and VanFleet. For that reason, I’ll fade picking a side here. Washington is off a back-to-back tonight after a tough loss at Milwaukee, so there’s that too. The Raptors are volatile as hell but when they’re all healthy and playing together, they’re capable of beating any team in the NBA. We’ve seen that script play out many times before. Until someone proves they can slow down Beal and Westbrook, and this could certainly be the night since eventually they have to get tired (right?… right?), I’ll keep hitting these overs. Washington seems to be close or over 70 points at the end of every half, making these total bets pretty easy to hit in the end.
Clippers -8.5 (-110), 1 unit: Tread carefully here because the Lakers could wake up at any second, even without Lebron, but so far Anthony Davis hasn’t been able to hold up his team or make any real difference. The Lakers are losing and losing often since his return and Lebron, for all that he’s done over his long and legendary career, is starting to sound awfully negative about his future. Complaining about his injuries (it’s about time he admits it) and about the playoffs, King James doesn’t seem to be in a good place and it’s quickly looking like this won’t be the Lakers year. Enter the swarming Clippers who, like sharks in shallow water, surely smell blood here. LAC is starting all their big names Thursday and why wouldn’t they? If the Clippers win tonight, they’ll sweep the season series with the Lakers and at least gain the feeling like they’ve regained the throne of Los Angeles, at least temporarily. The Clippers are quietly entering the playoffs as one of the most well balanced teams in the NBA. They’re 2nd overall in offensive efficiency, 10th in defensive efficiency, 3rd in point differential, and sit comfortably at 4th in the West. And that’s all after consistently sitting stars throughout the year. When all players are healthy, they’re a really tough team to overcome. Dennis Schroder is also out tonight, the other Laker-sparkplug, and this just sets up too well for another LAC-blowout. Only 1 unit out of respect for the champs, but I don’t think this one is that close.
