2-2 day in MLB Thursday and we tend to be hitting at 50% a lot lately. Are we still in the black? Yes. That’s what good unit allocation is all about. But let’s get a winning day, shall we (in my defense, I do take a lot of dogs where others wouldn’t, you’re welcome)?! There’s a ton going on at the Farley house today so this will be a short article because of that and because I don’t see quite as much value on the card. Onto my TGIF picks!
Cardinals -1.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Cardinals remain at Busch Stadium and besides a blip against the Nationals in his 3rd start, Jack Flaherty (3.41 ERA, 3.28 FIP, 1.02 WHIP over 34.1 innings) has looked like himself so far, holding a steady command on the mound, displaying an exceptional velocity and limiting big hits. I don’t like Colorado as much away from Coors Field and Austin Gomber (5.90 ERA, 1.25 WHIP over 29 innings), while serviceable, doesn’t scare me away at all. Gomber was formally associated with St. Louis both in the minors and as a one year starter, so I’m sure he’ll want to do well, but the Cardinals bats are due for some redemption after a few bad looks against the Mets. I’ll take St. Louis by margin in a good spot.
Orioles over 4 runs (+125), 2 units: Last time Baltimore was at bat they faced Seattle’s leftie Yusei Kikuchi and we all know how that game went. Yes yes, our boy John Means threw the perfect game and we love to see that, but the Orioles bats also had their way with Kikuchi. They usually do against lefties. They were good for 8 hits and 6 runs, steadily building a lead throughout the contest. Tonight the Orioles oppose Eduardo Rodriguez (4.18 ERA, 1.04 WHIP over 28 innings), the left-handed 28 year old starter who’s looked very subpar in 2021, allowing plenty of hits and runs all 5 times he hit the mound. The Red Sox could easily out-hit the Orioles tonight, but I’m willing to bet (as you can tell) that the O’s will get theirs too. This might be delayed due to rain but whenever it happens, I love the Orioles to score against Rodriguez.
Giants win (+125), 1.5 units: Anthony DeSclafani (2.00 ERA, 0.94 WHIP over 36 innings) and the Giants are at home and take on Blake Snell (3.51 ERA, 1.48 WHIP over 25.2 innings) and the Padres Friday night, and this is a nice revenge spot for DeSclafani. The 31 year old looks like he’s settled into his prime in 2021 with some really impressive outings over 5 starts. Last week he was handed a loss after allowing 3 hits/runs over 6 innings against this same Padres team, at San Diego, but I think the result will be different today. The Giants just suffered two bad losses (we were on top of that) at Coors and dropped their second series in a row. The Padres enjoyed a win against the Pirates at home and now travel back to the Golden Gate city to face their divisional foe. Nearly tied at the top of the NL West, this should be a good game featuring two solid pitchers. I expect some positive regression for Snell, who hasn’t looked great after 5 starts, but the spot and team-motivation favors the Giants for me. Even in a win, nothing really impressed me about the Padres’ domination of Pittsburgh. The Giants need to get right. For that reason, at this value, I’ll go with the dog.
