Cincinnati vs Cleveland -122 O/U 8
Gonna make a public play here so tail with your own risk. Did you happen to catch that no no last night? Miley was throwing darts and Cleveland was embarrassed at home. This no hitter is somewhat surprising but Cleveland also was one of the worst batting teams last year with only slight improvement ranking 26th this year. The Indians need to regroup and I think that this is the spot where they come alive. Both of these pitchers Castillo and Civale are pretty close to equal with Lifetime FIPs around 3.8 ish. The Bullpen is where this game might be won. Cincinnati has the 3rd worst bullpen FIP in baseball at 4.88 while Cleveland’s sits around 3.8. The Tribe’s best reliever James Karinchak should be available after resting yesterday. The Reds certainly have the better bats but they are the number 1 team in batting average with RISP (runners in scoring position) so regression is in order at some point being that they are 7th in batting average and 9th in WRC+. I won’t be rushing to back Cinci too soon. The situation that goes against the Indians according to Ralph Michaels from Wagertalk via Killersports.com is that since 2004, teams that just got no hit are usually bad bets in General the next game at 40% 22-33, but at home these teams are 13-15 so I think that this situation somewhat bucks that trend to null. I think the Land is the play here and let’s see if they can redeem themselves.
Cleveland -122 – 2 stars
Chicago White Sox vs Kansas city +143 O/U 9
Do you guys like simple and easy handicaps or do you like reading novels? The White Sox are number 1 in the league against lefties at a massive 137 WRC+. Lance Lynn is on the helm for the Sox and he has a nice 2.27 FIP while Daniel Lynch for the Royals is as green as the fake grass in my front yard. The Sox have a much better bullpen ranking 7th in FIP to the Royals 25th.
Chicago White Sox -153 – 2 stars
