Another great slate of NHL games tonight. We have 4 playoff games, and the final regular season game as the Canucks and Flames wrap up their seasons. The Northern Division playoffs finally get under way after a week delay with a matchup between the Oilers and the Jets.
Washington Capitals (+155) @ Boston Bruins (-180)
What a series this has been, eh? The Capitals took Game 1 and the Bruins respond with an overtime win in Game 2. The series travels to Boston for Game 3 as the Bruins look to keep the momentum going and take the series lead.
The Bruins have confirmed that Tuukka Rask will start in net tonight after starting the first two games of the series. Washington is expected to start Craig Anderson in net.
The Bruins outplayed the Capitals in Game 2 of the series, as they had an xGF(5v5) of 3.73 compared to Washington who had an xGF(5v5) of 1.64. The opening line for this game was around -160 and has since moved to -180 (BOS). The line may continue to move until puck drop as the Capitals are dealing with some injuries. Several players are expected to be game time decisions such as Oshie, Kuznetsov, Eller, and Samsonov. The moneyline for Boston just keeps on increasing each game. Its moved from -125 Game 1, to -130 Game 2, and now up -180 in Game 3. I just don’t agree with the odds for the game at all, I think the Capitals ml has some great value here especially if a few game time decisions play.
Pick: Washington Capitals ml, +155 (Risk 0.50 Unit) – Pointsbet
Nashville Predators (+165) @ Carolina Hurricanes (-195)
Pick: No Bet
Winnipeg Jets (+145) @ Edmonton Oilers (-175)
The Winnipeg Jets travel to Edmonton to take on the Oilers in the first game of the series. Edmonton is coming off a disappointing 2020 playoffs where they were upset in the qualifying round by the Chicago Blackhawks.
The Jets have confirmed that Connor Hellebuyck will start Game 1. The Oilers are expected to start Mike Smith but has yet to be confirmed.
The Oilers have dominated the Jets all season and come into this game as -175 favorites after the opening line shifted from -140. The Jets also just announced the Pierre-Luc Dubois and Nikolaj Ehlers are out for tonight. This announcement had some impact on the line as it has since shifted 5 cents. Connor McDavid has had the Jets number all season, specifically against Connor Hellebuyck. He has a dreadful 0.877 SV% against the Oilers this year. The Jets allow the 5th most high danger chances per 60 minutes (5v5) which doesn’t bode well with a struggling goalie. However, the issue for the Oilers is that their top 6 are the only ones who capitalize on those chances. The Oilers bottom forwards have contributed far and few between this year. Even with the Oilers not having solid depth, they should still take Game 1 with a better overall team that is led by the future 2021 NHL MVP.
Pick: Edmonton Oilers ml -155 (Risk 1.55 Units) – BetMGM
St. Louis Blues (+295) @ Colorado Avalanche (-360)
The Colorado Avalanche take on the Blues of St. Louis in Game 2 after a 4-1 win. The Blues and Avalanche went into the 3rd period tied but Colorado took over, led by the dynamic duo of N. MacKinnon and G. Landeskog. The Blues will look to rebound here and try to stay in this series against the President Trophy winners.
The Avalanche have confirmed that Philipp Grubauer will be in net after a solid performance in Game 1. The Blues have not confirmed their starting goalie tonight but Jordan Binnington was not at today’s morning skate indicating he may be out.
The closing line for Game 1 of this series was -320 (COL) and has moved past that number in Game 2 after being hammered early. The opening line for Game 2 was around -290/-300 depending on the book you’re using. Colorado finished the game with an xGF (5-5) of 2.91 compared to the Blues who had an xGF (5-5) of 1.23. Colorado flat out dominated Game 1 and were held in check until the third period behind the performance of Jordan Binnington. The Colorado moneyline offers no value, so I looked at some other bets to try and find some. The Avalanche average 1.39 GF in the 2P and concede an average of 0.63. The Blues on the other hand average 0.93 GF and 1.11 GA in the 2P. I think there’s some value in this line and worth a half a unit play especially since its looking like Binnington is out.
Pick: Colorado Avalanche 2P -0.5, -105 (Risk 0.50 Unit) – BETMGM
Pick: Colorado Avalanche -1.5, -130 (Risk 1.3 Units) – DraftKings
Year to Date Record: 6-5 (-0.10 Units)
Playoff Record: 3-1 (+2.60 Units)
