Yesterday was the day we needed, going 3-1 in NBA picks and finally getting a little redemption after a tough week that had about 100 bad beats. That’s the way this industry goes, it ebbs and flows, and that’s why bankroll management and ensuring you’re not overly invested in any one wager is so key. Onto more picks and as always, hopefully onto more wins. Happy new week, everyone!
Bucks win first QTR (-150), 2 units: Khris Middleton hit an amazing final shot in the first game of this series, sealing an OT win for the 3rd seeded Bucks. It was a tone-setter. Will Khris Middleton and other Milwaukee skill players continue to provide exceptional support for Giannis when the game is outside of his control? So far it seems that way, and that means the Bucks are a very dangerous contender in the East. We saw gutsy performances from more than just Middleton, though. While Antetokounmpo was missing free throws and still banking his $200 million contract, Brook Lopez was nailing hook shots, Jrue Holiday secured 11 rebounds and scored 20 points, and Middleton led the Bucks in assists. And the entire team finally really stepped up on defense. We expected positive regression from their defense and they looked like a different unit on that end of the floor.
I wanted to go with the over in this one (222) but I just can’t do it. Both of these units showed a lot of zeal on defense and the total is probably too high once again. Still, I’d lean to the over. Milwaukee wasn’t able to push the pace like they always do, if anything Miami controlled the tempo in game 1, and it’s a big reason why the Bucks almost lost. I expect the home team to stimulate the game-speed early and often.
That’s why I like the Bucks most in the 1st quarter. The Heat could definitely win this game and at +4.5, that seems like the right side to be on. I’ll lean their side but I can’t take it, not with what the adjustments I expect Milwaukee to make as stated above. That being said, the Heat were exhaustively scrappy in the first contest. Jimmy Butler was flying around the court sacrificing his body, Dragic and Robinson were lethal from the outside, Adebayo was assertive at the rim and the entire team played really tight defense. That’s who they but it’s really hard to maintain that level of energy against a team as talented as the Bucks. Especially against Giannis, who’s so long and agile, guarding the Greek Freak and other Bucks’ starters will take its toll.
Building off the momentum of that last second bucket from Middleton, I expect the Bucks to come out hot and in-rhythm Monday night. For the full game, who knows. Miami certainly has the gusto to get a win. If I had to make a prediction, I think Milwaukee steals another one here but this series could very well be tied once it moves to Miami. For tonight, I’ll take an amped up Bucks unit to go ahead early.
Nuggets -1.5 (-115), 2 units: I really love the Nuggets tonight. Lightning doesn’t strike twice but that phrase doesn’t really describe what happened in game 1, does it?
The Blazers legitimately beat Denver. While they flexed a blitzing offensive attack from the first quarter of play, Portland was able to really turn on the jets in the second half. Damian Lillard scored 16 points alone in the 3rd quarter, launching one big 3-pointer after another, and the Blazers out-scored the Nuggets 38-25. Up by 10 entering the fourth quarter, Portland was able to slow down the pace and lock-down Jokic and the Nuggets’ offense, allowing only 23 total points in the final 12 minutes. It was a complete effort from Portland in a game where Carmelo Anthony was 50% from beyond the arc and added 18 points off the bench, McCollum was efficient with 21 points, and big men Nurkic and Powell combined for 26 points and 15 rebounds. And again, like we see so often in the postseason, the Blazers’ defensive energy was at a different level and they were able to stifle the Nuggets’ on many occasions. They were also 94.7% from the free throw line. Denver was an abysmal 50% and only got to the charity stripe for 8 attempts. Expect the aggression and intensity from Denver to change tonight.
When you get a really good team like the Nuggets favored by this tiny amount at home after a game 1 loss, it’s one of the better bets in sports. The Blazers are certainly capable of going up 2-0 in this series, I’m not underestimating them, but Jokic is too good a leader and his supporting cast has proven how resilient and capable they are all year. The Nuggets are all-too-aware why they lost in game 1. Overly reliant on jump-shots and never really finding a rhythm, Denver struggled to find consistent offense against a Portland team that knew exactly who they were. Denver allowed the Blazers to dictate the pace of the game and they paid for it. Porter Jr. was an awful 1-10 from beyond the arc, Campazzo and Rivers combined for only 14 points and 8 assists, Millsap was underutilized off the bench, and Aaron Gordon wasn’t aggressive enough in the front court. Expect some positive regression on all fronts, especially when it comes to Denver getting to the free throw line. If they don’t attack the rim they won’t be able to dictate the pace. If they’re leading or favored early but they’re not forcing the ball down low, look for this game to turn in Portland’s direction again. If the underdogs are in rhythm, I don’t think the Nuggets can hang with the pace or skill of Portland’s perimeter shooters.
I don’t think Denver will let it get to that point. Expect the Nuggets to come out with a different energy and to tie this series at home.
