Another winning night as we went 2-1 overall, leading us to 7-2 over the last 3 days. Solid handicapping usually means that after a slump, positive regression is peeking around the corner. It’s arrived for us and we hope for more tonight! Here are my picks:
Wizards/Sixers 1Q over 58.5 (-110) 1.5 units and Wizards/Sixers full game over 229 (-115), 1.5 units: The Wizards and the Sixers played at the quickest pace of any two NBA teams in their first contest. At 101.5 possessions, which is actually below Washington’s average on the season, game one featured a ton of exceptional offense and 2 quarters that came very close to 70 points. Normally, especially after adjustments are made in the postseason, you expect some things to change in the proceeding games. I don’t expect much to be different tonight.
Philadelphia seemed content playing fast. Doc Rivers may not love a lightning tempo but his team can struggle from the field when they’re out of rhythm. That didn’t happen Sunday and I expect them to keep welcoming the Wizards’ style. Washington is a much more volatile offensive team, with big upswings and downswings in scoring. As long as the Sixers can limit the Wizards fast-break opportunities, which they did a pretty good of in game one, Philadelphia can still control the momentum.
Game one was played well by both teams and their stats are shockingly similar in a ton of categories. Still, the Sixers are deserving of their 8 point line tonight. Their ability to command and maintain the lead in the 4th quarter is something great teams do and it’s enough to keep me away from choosing a side Wednesday. The Wizards could easily cover this line but Philly can just as easily pull away.
The Wizards’ only chance to beat Philly is to outrun them. If they can’t outrun them, they’ll still keep running. If they get way behind, they’ll chase. All the narratives seem to support a game that cultivates plenty of points and it’s the play I like most in this contest. I’m on the over in the first quarter too, since game one started slow and I expect some of that fast-paced momentum to carry over into tonight.
Knicks win (-130), 2 units: This is my play of the night (which, for all the trolls out there, doesn’t mean it’s a “lock” or “guarantee”– there’s no such thing, folks). Let’s not forget who the Knicks have been all season and what they’ve shown us all year. They’ve been criticized and doubted and they kept crawling back. Big wins against teams like the Clippers, Lakers, and Bucks came at moments that no one expected. Long winning streaks and superb effort on both ends of the court led to the Knicks becoming the ATS leader for most of the final weeks of the regular season, winning 16 of their last 20 games. They were also 3-0 against the Hawks, and Julius Randle had two huge games against them where he scored 40 and 44 points.
That wasn’t the Randle we saw in game one. Julius was an atrocious 6-23 from the field and only secured 15 points Sunday. Like Anthony Davis last night (which we capitalized on as a premium pick for my subscribers), I expect different results from Julius Randle Wednesday (and I’d look at his player props if I were you). Unlike Anthony Davis, Randle doesn’t need a bad game to motivate him. He’s always motivated. Randle is the type of player who goes to the gym at 3am and gets in reps even after he has an MVP performance. Expect the Knicks to feature him early and often.
The same can be said for other Knicks’ starters. Derrick Rose had a decent game but RJ Barrett needs to step it up. He’s young and I’m sure he’s nervous but that’s what separates the great from the good– playing well under pressure. Trae Young didn’t seem nervous. While Trae was nailing outside shots and getting to the foul line, RJ Barrett was 1-6 from beyond the arc and only 5-16 from the field for 14 points. The Knicks’ other starters, Payton, Bullock and Noel, only managed 12 combined points. Not good enough.
If you’re an Atlanta fan you’ll probably hate this post. I recognize how solid of a team the Hawks are, but they’re also a very predictable team. They’re well-coached, good (not great) on both sides of the court and they’ll almost always beat a team that has a bad night (as we saw in game one). Madison Square Garden was rocking Sunday, which is something even the Knicks need to adjust to, and I imagine the home-town crowd won’t be any less forgiving to Atlanta tonight. I expect significant positive regression from New York’s skill players combined with another solid defensive effort to equal a win before this series goes to Atlanta. The Knicks are too battle-tested and too close-knit a team to let another game slip away at home.
Lean Jazz -9.5 (-110): I can’t bet this game. The Grizzlies and Jazz series may have the most volatility of any matchup in the early going. It shouldn’t– the Jazz are the way better team– but Donovan Mitchell’s absence is starting to hurt Utah and Memphis is playing a bit over their head. While I’m sure they’ll be competitive tonight, I have to lean to the team I saw out-class every NBA team all year. If Mitchell returns, a mountain of motivation for a Jazz team that dropped game one could mean an epic blowout tonight. It’s a watch and see game for me, but I’ll lean the Jazz at a big number.
