Yet another winning night (no, I don’t get sick of saying it), going 2-1 in my picks Wednesday at TheOddsBreakers. The Wizards/76ers full game total probably should have went over but the pace and production significantly decreased in the second half because of Philly’s big lead. We’re 9-3 this week! Onto Thursday:
Heat win (+110), 1 unit: We’re not surprised by what happened in game two. We saw it coming for Milwaukee– the Bucks are kinda pissed. Entering at the 3rd seed, which they’re not used to, and finishing up their season with some tumultuous injuries and volatile performances, Milwaukee has started these NBA playoffs in overwhelming fashion. While the first game of the series was a tough-fought battle that nearly went Miami’s way, the second contest was anything but.
The Bucks stomped the Heat in game two, opening up with a 46-20 first quarter and never laying off the gas, ultimately winning by a margin of 34 points. The Greek-freak had his way with the opposition too, securing 31 points, 13 rebounds and 6 assists in the process. Don’t be too unsettled by that, though. Giannis and company were at home, where they love to play fast, and the Heat were fresh off a really tough game one where they exerted a week’s worth of energy.
As dominant as Milwaukee looked in game two, the Heat looked exhausted. They were out-rebounded 61-36, out-assisted (out-assisted?… that doesn’t sound like English) 34-20, only shot 40% from the field and 28.6% from beyond the arc, and never held a lead. The Bucks are a really good team capable of making it to the finals, but the Heat aren’t that far below them. I think tonight will look and feel very differently at American Airlines Arena.
The books are daring us to take the Bucks side here as this number sits at the always strange NBA line of -1.5. Miami has had a full 2.5 days to rest and their home crowd, who was never able to cheer on their Cinderella-team in the postseason last year, will be absolutely rocking. Expect the Heat to apply suffocating defense and limit Giannis’ output tonight. The former MVP doesn’t play as well under pressure– Give me the HEAT.
P.S. The Heat are 40-32 at home and the Bucks are one of the worst away teams in the NBA, covering at a rate of only 38.9% (14-22). The only team that’s worse? The Cavs.
Suns/Lakers under 212 (-110), 1.5 units and Lean, Lakers -7 (-110): The Suns and Lakers had an abnormally high scoring 4th quarter that created a push on the total 2 nights ago but in actuality, the under should have hit. Some of these NBA playoff games are about nerves and atypical shooting percentages just because of the playoff pressure. Some of that has to do with these low Suns/Lakers totals but more of it is because of how exceptional both teams are on defense. The Lakers are huge compared to Phoenix, towering over them at virtually every position, while the Suns play really scrappy and pestering defense that throws off the average shooters of LAL. The Lakers are built to dominate games with high-percentage shots and rapid-fire ball movement. The way the Suns adjust and relentlessly double-team makes them built to limit the Lakers just as much as the Lakers are built to limit Phoenix. Overall, LAL and Phoenix are still the slowest teams so far in the postseason at only 92 possessions. I don’t see much changing so I’ll jump on another under play. For me it’s the only good look in this contest.
I’ll lean Lakers -7 and most of that is because of Chris Paul’s ailments. The veteran guard and clear leader of the Suns is a vital piece of their success but he’s been nursing a shoulder injury since a bad fall in game one. We talked about it a lot this year– the Suns are the same exact team as last year, + Chris Paul. Paul was the extra talent and leader they needed to facilitate all of Phoenix’s young potential. Now, after an impressive 2nd half and game two win from the Lakers, they travel back home to the Staples Center where they’ll be more comfortable and more poised to take on the world. I can’t look the Suns way here– it’s Lakers -7 or nothing for me.
Remember when the playoff series line moved to -110 for both teams a few days ago? Same. I hope you took advantage of that opportunity and bet on LAL. I’d be shocked if they don’t knock out Phoenix.
Nuggets +4 (-110), 2 units: Point blank– I think the wrong team is favored here. I realize the Blazers are at home tonight and Damian Lillard is in front of his home crowd– rut row… But were we all watching the same game 3 nights ago? Were the sportsbooks watching? Check out the game-flow visual on ESPN and you’ll see that Denver controlled the entire contest. After making some adjustments in game one, adjustments we anticipated in our write-up here, the Nuggets had no problem sustaining a big lead over Portland for 48 minutes. The Blazers even out-rebounded and out-shot the Nuggets from beyond the arc and still lost by nearly 20 points.
The Blazers are a better all-around unit than people give them credit for but that doesn’t mean they’re not still overly dependent on Lillard. They are. Dame-time is the only player on Portland, maybe besides Carmelo, who has that dawg mentality and thrives under pressure. McCollum and Kanter and Covington have their moments, but the team looks to Lillard to lift them up and they look his way too often. For example: Damian was 8-10 from 3-point land in the first half Monday night. That’s incredible. Do you know what the score was at the end of the half? 73-61, Denver. It didn’t matter how well Lillard played. The Lillard-centric design to their offense and the fact that Lillard doesn’t exactly care about facilitating others creates a team that’s handicapped on the offensive end.
Jokic and the Nuggets aren’t built that way. The big man loves to score and control games but he’s just as adept at passing the ball around and raising up others. He’s also very underrated on defense. The Nuggets played a very complete game 3 nights ago. Gordon had 13, Porter had 18, Campazzo had 12, Rivers had 9, Millsap was more involved and had 15, Morris had 12, and the MVP-front runner Joker-man had 38.
This is worth a moneyline sprinkle but I love getting 4 points. Denver figured out a recipe to beat Portland and I think they stick to it tonight. The Blazers aren’t built, at least from my purview, to make the same adjustments against a complete team like the Nuggets.
Parlay opportunity: Not an official bet, but a Heat/Nuggets ML combo pays over +400 at most books. Not a bad pay day for a very possible result.
