We continue to cruise this week in NBA Playoff betting, hitting 11 out of 15 picks so far. Hell of a week but we’re not done yet. Today presents a tougher than usual slate of games to handicap and choose a side– let’s try to keep this train chugging along, choo choo!!
Hawks -4 (-115), 1.5 units and Bogdanovic over 18.5 points (-108), 1 unit: I don’t want to choose the Hawks’ side, trust me. Madison Square Garden was absolutely electric 2 nights ago when the Knicks were able to overcome very poor shooting and sloppy offense in the first half to come back and snag a win. With all the COVID-caused disappointments this past year, I don’t remember the last time I felt that sort of jubilation watching sports. I’m not a Knicks fan but they’re a really tough team to not cheer for. They’re without ego, dying to win and prove they’re among the best, and they’re full of workaholics that take on Julius Randle’s blue-collar mentality.
But let’s be honest– besides the exciting environment Wednesday when the home team came back, did it really feel like the Knicks were the better team? To me it didn’t. As happy as I was to see them win and cash our bet, it felt like the MSG crowd fueled that win. In that way it was really the first time I truly felt the advantage of a home court since fans were welcomed back. That unadulterated support that filled New York City won’t carry to Atlanta and I think that’ll make a big difference tonight.
When you watch these two teams compete, it’s clear who should win. The Hawks are just a way better offensive team. While I still hold onto my perspective that nothing really jumps off the page when you watch Atlanta–they’re just a solid overall team–they do have considerably better shooting talent than New York. One big reason why Atlanta ended up losing is because one of their most potent offensive scorers, Bogdan Bogdanovic, went ice cold in the second half. When the team needed him to nail that long range shot and bring them back within distance, he missed opportunity after opportunity. The Serbian sharpshooter shot a poor 2-13 from beyond the arc, finishing 8-21 from the field and with just 18 points. I think it’s fair to say the MSG crowd had an effect, and I also think it’s fair to assume he’ll have a better night tonight. Bogdan in the 20s feels right. Trae Young had a great game but he can’t do it alone. Collins and Capela combined for only 4 points and DeAndre Hunter went 3-10 from the field. Positive regression is coming for this offense, despite how good New York is at limiting easy shots.
When the Knicks struggle on the offensive end, which happens more often than we want to admit, it’s not a good look. I don’t think they’ll fare very well Friday. Atlanta can play really solid defense and I expect them to shoot more freely and with significantly more precision in game three. This line is up to -5 at most books but may move back down. If you like the Hawks then maybe wait and see if it does. I still like them at -5 but if you can snag the line at -4 (like I did last night, and which you should get in the habit of doing!), I say do it.
Lean Nets -8 (-110): This line is up to -8.5 now and how could you disagree with it? I won’t make a play here– if there’s any game that Boston will get up for it’s this one– but the disparity between these two teams has been silly. Like the re-burgeoning Lakers in the West, Brooklyn looks like they have plenty of chemistry despite their big 3 stars not playing together very often. That should terrify every team in the Eastern Conference. Not only do the Celtics not have chemistry but they’re overly dependent on a player who’s not ready to bloom. Jayson Tatum is a gifted talent but he hasn’t shown the grit or gusto a star needs to overcome the adversity before him. Of course it shouldn’t be all on him, but Jaylen Brown’s injury and Kemba Walker’s limitations put Tatum in this position. If you like the Celtics to be feisty tonight, I would look at a Tatum points-prop over (29.5 at -115). The best bet here is probably still the Nets at -8.
Clippers win (-135), 1.5 units and Mavericks over 109.5 points (even), 2 units: If LAC fails to step up tonight, I think it’s fair to say this is the last time I’ll stick my neck out for the fledgling Clippers. I’ve said over and over again in my previous articles and I’m sticking to it– the Clippers are, on paper, a considerably better team than the Mavericks. But I reckon “paper” doesn’t matter much in the postseason; certainly not when you have a dynamic player like Luke Doncic on the opposing team. In game one, Luka scored 31 points and had 10 rebounds and 11 assists. In game two, Luka scored 39 points and had 7 rebounds and 7 assists. Well shit, what will Luka do in game three? AT HOME?
That should be the Clippers main concern. The morning after their most recent loss, after going down 0-2, Paul George was quoted saying “we’re not concerned.” I get the whole Joe-cool game there Paulie but maybe it’s time to up your intensity a tad. Do you think Kobe and MJ and Iverson and Lebron and Shaq and Malone and Magic (need I go on?) wouldn’t be “concerned” if they went down 0-2 in the playoffs? I’m thinking they would, but I know– that’s like comparing a steak to a brussels sprout– not quite the same character. Someone on this Clippers needs to step up and become not only a voice of motivation but a commandant for this team. That probably should be Kawhi, but he’s quiet. Maybe it should be George? Na, I think we just covered that. Beverly is kind of crazy. Ibaka is too humble and seems shy. I don’t know who the hell it’s going to be but if I were a Clippers fan I’d be losing my mind right now. The Mavericks are an above-average team in talent and in-depth but what’s making the difference in this series is their chemistry and poise. LAC is lacking in those areas, tremendously.
These two bets act as a hedge of sorts although both could easily hit. The Mavericks eclipsed 110 points twice in this series and now they’re at home with a supportive crowd behind their buckets. Advantage– Dallas offense. On the season the Clippers have proven to be an exceptional defense but they haven’t had an answer for the Mavs so far and it’ll be even more difficult on the road. While I think LAC is the more desperate team and will figure out a way to win, I expect the Mavericks to get theirs in what should be an entertaining game three. If this game ends in a score like 108-104 Dallas, I’m probably done betting this series (ha).
