What a week it’s been! We went 4-1 yesterday and that brings us to a lovely 17-7 the past 7 days. I’m not a numerology guy but I can’t hate on multiple sevens accompanying my wins. Head down and onto more solid handicapping– happy Sunday!
Knicks/Hawks 1H under 106 (-110), 1.5 units: This should be one of those “all out effort” games for New York so it’s really hard for me to pick a side here. Charles Barkley said it best (actually one of his friends said it but I forget who he was referring to) when he described this series as will vs. talent. It’s so true. The Hawks are clearly the more talented unit– they have better shooters, bigger names, their players are younger and more dynamic, and they have a true star in Trae Young. Of course I said all that BEFORE Charles did but whatever. I also didn’t play in the NBA as one of the premiere power forwards for over a decade so I guess I’ll concede. Anyway, the Knicks could play well over their heads here but we’re starting to see the better teams emerge. It’s hard for me to say confidently that the Hawks are that much better, since I still give the Knicks the edge on defense, but the point is I can’t take a side. The safest bet is probably the ATL moneyline, which will be a parlay leg for me today.
When New York plays their heart out and they’re in a desperate spot, it shows through their defense. Atlanta had their homecoming and the proceeding big win by margin they were looking for. This one should feel different, at least for a half. As usual, I expect a scrappy, testy, competitive defensive battle for the first 24 minutes. None of the last three games has eclipsed 102 points in the first half and this contest could be the most contentious yet. I’ll take the first half under for 1.5 units; the full game scares me if ATL’s offense explodes and takes the lead in the second half as the books expect.
Lakers -6.5 (-110), 2 units: This is a really simple handicap, maybe I’m oversimplifying, but so be it. We’ve seen this story before. King James and the Lakers are having fun, Anthony Davis is laser focused, and LA’s supporting cast is showing they know how to contribute best for their team to win. Schroder is playing really well, the bigs are coming off the bench and sharking the front court with veteran expertise, and other names like Kuzma and Caruso are doing their part even when they’re not scoring.
Oh and Chris Paul still isn’t himself.
That’s not a good combination for the Suns. The only chance Phoenix ever had was in a healthy Chris Paul to facilitate and lead his team and that prospective is looking more and more grim. Devin Booker scoring 50+ a game would help but the Lakers have showed they can limit him, too. Especially when Anthony Davis plays this aggressively, it takes pressure off Lebron to do everything for his team. Last year’s champs are at home, poised, and really starting to hum. If this was a young inexperienced unit I might be on the Suns to cover today, but they’re not. The Lakers’ players and staff are ultra-experienced and they’ve found the recipe to win. It’s the same old story, I know. And it’s probably boring and frustrating to see LAL keep winning, I know. But this isn’t about heart or soul or who we want to win, it’s about what we observe and how we can beat the books. I think the Lakers take a firm hold on this series and beat Phoenix by margin once again.
Nets -7.5 (-110), 1.5 units: What happened in game three? Durant and Harden had huge games (39 and 41 points, respectively), but the Nets lost? How? I’ll tell you how– because the other Nets’ players didn’t do much at all. Starters’ Kyrie Irving, Joe Harris and Blake Griffin went for a combined 10-31 from the field for only 28 points. Other players off the bench? Only 11 total points. Yea, that’s not going to work.
Brooklyn also lost their edge on defense. They allowed Boston to shoot 50.6% from the field and 41% from beyond the arc, not to mention permitting a huge game for Tatum who scored 50 points all by himself. Nice let-down game there, Brooklyn. Game four just became even more crucial.
The last thing Brooklyn wants to do is allow the Celtics to gain momentum and confidence. The Nets play their best when their stars are executing and everyone is contributing. At the end of the day, this is still a team game and it requires a full team effort to win. In games one and two, where Brooklyn played with a “let’s show the world” chip on their shoulder, you saw the result. Expect that Nets team to come out today and overwhelm the Celtics. Boston has the home court advantage and it’ll make a difference in segments of this game, but the Nets have too much experience and talent to not pull away. And Tatum, as we’ve seen, tends to regress after having a huge game. I’m on the Nets to cover.
Lean, Clippers/Mavericks over 221 (-110): This series is a little too volatile for me to play anything on it tonight. In other words, it’s a pure “watch and analyze game” for me. If I would bet on any angle, though, it would be game over 221 points. This matchup has been and will continue to be all about the stars. Kawhi, George, Doncic, Porzingis — the big names have continued to provide big performances. Look for player point-props and look for the stars to keep scoring and driving this total up.
