We went 4-1 yesterday, making us 6-2 so far this week! I’ve done my research but don’t have the time to be too verbose in this article, so please excuse the brevity. Onto my picks!
Reds win (-115), 1.5 units: The Reds just got embarrassed last night after a big offensive showing by Philly and today they’ll send out the young enigma Vladimir Gutierrez, who according to FanGraphs, “could be intriguing if his fast start at Triple-A is any indication (31% K, 2.65 ERA, 0.94 WHIP in 17 IP).” His first start was impressive. He held the surging Cubs to only 2 hits and 1 run in 5 innings. Philly is hoping Spencer Howard and his big able frame turns into something that he hasn’t so far. I trust the Reds’ bats and the revenge angle with their new stud pitcher to get it done at home.
White Sox/Indians under 8 (-105), 1 unit: These Chicago/Cleveland games have been uncharacteristically high-scoring, particularly for an Indians team not known for their offensive talent, but I’ll go the other way today. Lance Lynn (6-1, 1.37 ERA, 0.93 WHIP over 52.2 innings) has been dominant in this short season and the young sensation Jean Carlos Mejia will get his first official start this year for Cleveland. In 5 innings, he’s looked really exceptional. The bats have to cool down eventually and this feels like the spot, though I’ll only put 1 unit on it (recency bias has me shook).
Marlins/Blue Jays under 8 (+105), 1 unit: Another game another under. I don’t know if it’s his 6’6″ 260 pound frame or his moxie or purely his first performance, but Toronto’s Alex Manoah looks the part of an ace and has earned his second start today. He dominated the Yankees in his first showing, just like he did in spring training, and will look to further build his brand against a Marlins team that’s scored only 6 runs in their last 4 games. Miami’s Pablo Lopez (2.71 ERA, 1.13 WHIP over 63 innings) doesn’t get the run support he deserves but he’s been as steady as it gets for Miami. Two young guns looking to prove their worth– I’m on a pitcher’s dual and low-scoring affair in this one.
Red Sox win (+120), 1.5 units: I’m expecting some positive regression from the Red Sox bats and this is yet another play on ol’ reliable Nick Pivetta (3.86 ERA, 1.27 WHIP over 53.2 innings). Pivetta does the same thing virtually every time he starts– he allows some contact, maybe a few runs, but the game never gets out of control. Boston has only lost once when Pivetta took the mound and I’ve made some good cabbage playing on him. Framber Valdez gets for his second start with Houston Wednesday, fresh off a decent first outing last week against San Diego. The 27 year old permitted a homerun but earned 4 strikeouts in 4 innings last Friday. The kid has potential but I’d rather go with Pivetta and the Sox. Boston brings a .761 OPS and .237 batting average against lefties and their hitters have been stifled so far at Minute Maid Park. I expect that to change today so I’ll gladly take + money with the away team.
