Too bad Kawhi Leonard had an off night (7-19 from the field, 1-7 from beyond the arc) or we might’ve had a 4-0 night with that Doncic/Kawhi player prop. Ah well, 3-1 nights seem to be a pattern for me and how can I complain? 75% ain’t a bad thing. Oh and we’re 25-12 over the last 11 days… in the words of Lloyd Christmas: I like it a lot! Onto Thursday and the always entertaining Western Conference series!
Parlay, Blazers win 1st QTR and 1st QTR over 58.5 (1 unit to win 1.91 units), Lillard over 34.5 points (-105), 1.5 units and Blazers 1st Half -3 (-105), 1.5 units: All separate bets. Can you tell I like Portland early? I don’t want to be a broken record here so I won’t get into all the reasons why I think Denver is the better team. I like them to win this series and you can read my past articles on why for more details. That being said, regardless of how good the Nuggets play tonight, what more can we say about the enigma that is Damian Lillard? I don’t think we can say he’s the “best clutch shooter of all time” but shit, he has to be in the top 5. When Portland is down one possession and they need a three, Dame-time is damn near automatic. He seemed tired and frustrated after game 5 but I have little doubt that he’ll show up big time at home tonight. No point total seems high enough these days for Lillard, especially with how dependent the Blazers are on their star rising to the occasion time and time again.
Portland didn’t get off to a hot start in Tuesday’s game but they found a way to climb their way back into the contest. Two overtimes and one deflating loss later, the Blazers head back home in a must-win situation to keep their title hopes alive. In the 2 games where Portland won, the Blazers also won the first quarter by margins of 8 and 5 points. In the 3 games they lost, the Nuggets won the first quarter by margins of 6, 9, and 13. Apparently the first 12 minutes really matters. The Nuggets and Blazers are similar in while they don’t play incredibly fast (they rank near the bottom in pace this postseason), they score a ton of points. That’s because both offenses are highly efficient from the field, typically, and they have a plethora of great shooting talent. If either of these offenses take the early lead, their chances of sustaining productive offense and maintaining a lead are probably higher than most teams (last night was the exception of course, where Denver allowed Portland to come back from a 20+ point deficit, though they still ended up winning).
I expect Portland to come out very fired up after dropping that last game. They’re at home and this is a team, led by the moxie of Damian Lillard, that’s been in spots like this before. They’ve also proven their resiliency. For the full game, the Blazers at -5 feels a little too hefty for me, and lord knows Denver is capable of closing the gap, but a first quarter and first half win is much more comfortable. I’m glad this game will be televised on TNT and not overlapped by PHX/LAL– the public deserves to watch this entertaining series.
Lean, Lakers win (-135) and Lebron James over 29.5 points (-120), 2 units: Your cookie-cutter Vegas “OG bettor” might be pissed off when he/she keeps seeing my prop bets but it’s a new age of sports betting and there’s opportunity abound! The entertaining and unpredictable Lakers/Suns series leads us to game 6 where the embattled 2020 champions look to rediscover their confidence tonight, at home, against a Suns team that’s been mighty impressive in the last two matchups. Naturally you think I would ride Phoenix into this contest and drop a few units on it, right? I mean they’re living up to their name– the Suns are RED HOT right now.
Naa, no can do. I realize the Lakers looked horrific Tuesday night (a 30 point deficit for nearly 3 quarters? YIKES) but we can’t take small sample sizes and use that to wager our money. That’s an easy way to lose long term in this game. Plus, it’s a damn-near guarantee (damn-near, which is not a guarantee, just to clarify) that the Lakers’ players will perform better tonight. Literally no one on LAL’s roster looked good Tuesday. Schroder was 0-9 from the field for a big goose egg. Drummond only had 7 points in Anthony Davis’ absence. Caldwell-Pope? 0 points. Lebron? 9-19 and a -24 point differential. Morris? 4 points. I could go on and on. Kyle Kuzma might’ve been their best player 2 nights ago (LOL x 10).
Anthony Davis is officially a game-time decision tonight, which tells me that either he won’t play or if he does play, he’ll be far from 100%. To me that means one thing– the Lakers absolutely need Lebron to put in a huge performance if they have any shot at winning. In a game with a ton of garbage time on Tuesday night, Lebron still managed to score 24 points. With the media and other NBA stars calling on King James to be more aggressive and take the team on his shoulders, something he probably can’t do in the long term but could certainly can do tonight, I expect a more stone cold and confident Lebron. Over 29.5 points in a game this crucial? I love that prop.
With or without Anthony Davis, the Lakers are in a great spot to muster a win. Everyone, not just Lebron, can certainly play much better. While I’ll only lean LAL, I would caution bettors out there who want to lay heavy units on Phoenix. This is a spot where, if you like the Suns, it’s probably best to proceed with caution. This is still the playoffs, this is still a Lebron-led team, they’re at home, and they just suffered one of the more embarrassing losses in NBA playoff history. The narrative will look different tonight.
