There are less and less teams competing in the NBA and baseball season is now in full swing as we enter the summer months. It’s a long stretch before football season so it’ll be nice to settle in and focus on America’s pastime. Here are my picks for Tuesday:
Orioles win (+120), 1.5 units and Mets/Orioles over 9.5 (-105), 1 unit: The Orioles own one of the best batting averages against lefties this year (.286), second only to the Houston Astros. I like what I’ve seen from the Mets’ bats lately, especially with all the injuries they had in their lineup, and I’m sure they can expose Baltimore’s hittable Bruce Zimmerman (4.96 ERA, 1.53 WHIP over 49 innings). Zimmerman had some good showings but he’s too volatile and lacks command, especially against good hitting teams. Look for the Mets’ David Peterson (5.89 ERA, 1.40 WHIP over 44.1 innings) to get exposed at Camden Yards and I’ll favor a light over play because of it, too. Fingers crossed that a storm system doesn’t delay this contest.
Rays win (-200), 2.5 units: A rare 2.5 unit play for me but I really love the Rays today. Fresh off some rest, at home and with a far better pitcher, this is a pretty ideal spot for Tampa Bay. You’ve likely read about my proclivity of fading Jon Lester, I won’t get too into it again here, but to put it frankly: he’s beyond his prime and cannot be counted on in bad spots. His last two starts were actually pretty darn good– limiting the Braves and Brewers to only 1 run in those outings– but that’s even more reason for me to fade him today. Any sort of perceived dominance from Lester won’t last. On other hand, I really want to play on Tyler Glasnow (2.69 ERA, 0.92 WHIP over 77 innings) and it seems FanGraphs agrees, “Give Tyler Glasnow a third pitch and you get a pitcher who has a 2.57 ERA and 36.2 K%. The most exciting part is that in eight of his eleven starts he has pitched six innings or more. He even has pitched eight innings twice. Welcome to the top ten conversation Glasnow.” The Rays have been looking like a top 5, maybe top 3 team in baseball lately and if their bats can keep producing consistently, this could be a scary team in the fall. I won’t play on the run line here out of respect for Washington’s offense, but it’s a 2.5 unit play on Tampa Bay winning for me.
Marlins -1.5 (+125), 1 unit: The Rockies enjoyed a 6 game stint at Coors Field and as usual, they showcased a different ballclub at home, winning 4 of those contests. As I’m sure you’re all aware at this point, the Rockies are not the same team away from Denver. Pablo Lopez (2.82 ERA, 1.15 WHIP over 67 innings) gets the nod today for Miami and he’s been itching to get back on the mound after the Marlins dropped their last two games when he’s started. Lopez has a really solid overall profile and should show some more buy-signs today against a Rockies offense that tends to get anemic on the road. Anthony Senzatela (2-5, 4.47 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and only 34 strikeouts over 58.1 innings) will start today for Colorado. I’m not sure what to say on him other than I don’t trust the guy at all. He’s accountable in the sense that you can count on other teams hitting and scoring on him on a consistent basis. The Miami bats have struggled lately but this is a prime spot to get-right against a subpar pitcher. Give me the Marlins by margin against a Rockies team that’s an abysmal 4-22 on the road.
