What a way to sneak out a win last night, four minutes of empty net for the Habs and we were still able to hit on the under. Tonight, we have a Game 2 matchup where the Lightning look to even up the Series at home.
New York Islanders (+170) @ Tampa Bay Lightning (-200)
The Lightning dropped Game 1 where the Islanders played textbook hockey. They were able to shut down Tampa’s deadly offense and hold them off the scoresheet until the last minute. Semyon Varlamov was outstanding making some huge saves and finished the game with a +3.265 GSAx. He was the main reason that the Isle’s were able to shock the Bolts at home. The Lightning finished with a better xG (3.27-2.7) in Game 1 despite what the scoreboard indicated. Andrei Vasilevskiy wasn’t to blame for the Lightnings loss, as he had a +2.7 GSAx. These will most likely be the same two goalies starting tonight, but only Varlamov has been confirmed.
As we look to tonight’s game, the odds are exactly the same as Game 1. The Lightning are the heavy favorites at -200 while the Islanders are set to go off a +170 underdog. The only difference in terms of betting lines is the total which has dropped from 5.5 Game 1, to 5.0 in Game 2.
The Islanders offense is running through Matt Barzal who opened the scoring for New York in Game 1 and has four goals in the past five games. If you were to look on Twitter or Instagram tonight, I would guarantee that over 95% of them are giving out the Lightning ml as their best bet of the day. However, the Islanders aren’t the same team that lost to the Lightning last year. They made some great deadline moves picking up some veteran presence in Kyle Palmieri and Travis Zajac. For tonight’s play, I’m looking at some player prop’s.
Pick #1: Anthony Beauviller over 0.5 points (+105) Risk 0.50 Units
- Bauvillier’s line currently has a +5.4 xGF% which is one of the best in the playoffs. Personally he has a xGoals of +4.7, and enters the game with 4 goals and 7 assists these playoffs. Tampa is a team that gives up a lot of chances, and I can see him adding to his impressive point tally these playoffs. At plus money, I think this line offers some value and deserves a small play.
Pick #2: Matt Barzal over 0.5 points (-120), Risk 0.60 Units
- Barzal is one of the hottest players in the NHL, and has shown he can dominate this Tampa defense. He was a +2 in Game 1, generating both scoring chances. Barzal also has one of the best xGoals, with a +4.0. He should continue his hot streak tonight as I expect Tampa for try and push the pace tonight, leaving themselves exposed on defense.
