AFC West – I think that we found out a few things from this division last year. Kansas City is still a great team and a deserving favorite, but it’s hard to repeat another Super bowl win in consecutive years. The Raiders can’t and may not get over the hump. The LA Chargers were 100% correct in drafting Justin Herbert as well being correct in firing coach Lance Lynn, and Drew Lock for the Denver Broncos is not a franchise quarterback. The AFC West plays the AFC North and the NFC East this year which is what I would call medium in general but the schedules of these teams individually will have some pretty big differences this year with the Raiders having one of the hardest schedules in the NFL while the Broncos have one of the easiest in the league.
Kansas City Chiefs – Vegas Win Total – 12.5 juiced to the under -125
Kansas City Chiefs Power rating: 8
Schedule – Medium hard – At large vs Green Bay, vs Buffalo, @ Tennessee
Key losses: LT Eric Fisher, WR Sammy Watkins, DE Tanoh Kpassagnon, CB Breshard Breeland
Key additions: LT Orlando Brown, G Joe Thuney, DT Jarren Reed, RB Damien Williams
Key draft picks: LB Nick Bolton, C Creed Humphrey and a bunch of Meh
Summary: The Chiefs made it all the way last year and lost to Tampa Bay. Part of that was due to their offensive line woes due to injuries and age but they fixed some of that in the offseason shedding Erik Fisher and trading their first round pick for left tackle Orlando Brown and paying big bucks for Guard Joe Thuney who was extracted from the Patriots. I think that the Chiefs are still a bit weaker at right tackle from resigning Mike Remmers who was awful in the Super Bowl. The Chiefs also lost some depth at cornerback to free agency and I really don’t like the lack of effort to replace that. Either way, the offensive line should improve and this team still should have the best offense in the league. It’s the defense that worries me more from a depth perspective and we need to see if it holds up. The Frank Clark gun incident certianly didn’t do this team any favors. My number is 13.37 wins so I think that this team has the best chance to get the number 1 seed in the AFC. I know… Shocking right?
My Number: 13.37
Action – Lean Over
2. Las Vegas Raiders – Vegas Win Total – 7
Las Vegas Raiders Power Rating: -1
Schedule – Hard – At large vs Chicago, vs Miami, @ Indianapolis
Key losses: WR Nelson Agholor, RB Devonte Booker, DE Takarist McKinnley, RT Trent Brown, C Rodney Hudson, G Gabe Jackson, FS Lamarcus Joyner, DE Vic Beasley
Key additions: DE Yannick Ngakoue, RB Kenyon Drake, WR John Brown, DE Solomon Thomas, DT Quinton Jefferson, CB Casey Hayward
Key draft picks: T Alex Leatherwood, S Trevon Moehrig, Edge Malcomb Koonce, S Divine Diablo
Summary: Lots of people are pretty low on the Raiders and it really feels like a bunch of people who are trying to find a reason to bash them to bet the under. Maybe they are Gruden haters? Maybe they are Derek Carr non-believers. Who knows? The biggest things that I am hearing in the marketplace is that the Raiders got rid of their stud right tackle in Trent Brown along with Center Rodney Hutson and Guard Gabe Brown. At first I thought that this was pretty bad, but this team did have some depth at offensive line, and some younger guys will have to step up. First round draft pick of the 2018 draft Kolton Miller will be left tackle and this year’s first round pick from Alabama in Alex Leatherwood will have to shed the growing pains quick. Could it happen? Maybe, but they also need guard Richie Incognito to keep his head out of his ass. It looks bad that the Raiders lost their top WR in Nelson Agholor but they due have a lot of depth there with the signings of John Brown and Willie Snead. Remember the narrative in 2019 about the raiders in how they had to travel over 32,000 miles and they will go under their season win total because of it? How did that work out? I am not as low as some people are on this team but looking at their schedule and potential non-home field advantage in Las Vegas, I can’t imagine looking at the over. No Play
My Number: 7.24 wins
Action – Lean Under
3. Los Angeles Chargers – Vegas Win Total: 9 Juiced to the over -150
Las Angeles Chargers Power Rating: 0
Schedule – Medium – At large vs Minnesota, vs New England, @ Houston
Key losses – Coach Anthony Lynn, TE Hunter Henry, S Rayshawn Jenkins, ILB Denzel Perryman, OLB Melvin Engram, C Mike Pouncey, G Trei Turner
Key additions: Coach Brandon Staley, OC Joe Lombardi, C Corey Linsley, RT Matt Feiler, TE Jared Cook, G Oday Aboushi
Key draft picks: T Rayshawn Slater, CB Asante Samuel JR and a bunch of dudes.
Summary: Justin Herbert turned out to be a great QB pick who was selected 3rd in the 2020 draft. The Chargers under 8 wins last year was our biggest bet and I was happy that it cashed, but I am not so sure that I want to go under this year with a new defensive minded coach like Brandon Staley and a very experienced coach calling the plays in the Sean Payton Tree. I think those were some great moves. Anthony Lynn did not know how to manage the clock in games, and he was very poor from a strategic aspect in NFL football. This team revamped their offensive line by signing Packers and Steelers guys and drafting one of the top prospects in the league in Rashawn Slater who was the only guy who somewhat handled Chase Young in college. That is a smart move being that both of the Packers and Steeler’s offensive lines have been great over the past 5 or so years. In saying that, this Charger team shed a lot of weight getting rid of some X stars that could never stay all that healthy in Melvin Engram and Hunter Henry. The Chargers won 7 games last year but there is an asterisk by that last game due to Kansas City benching their starters for the playoffs. This Chargers team was pretty injured last year ranking 6th in total injuries and I think that they could have a great season and push KC a bit. I have them to take 2nd in the division.
My Number: 9.33 wins
Action – No Play
4. Denver Broncos – Vegas Season Win total – 8.5 juiced to the over -140
Denver Broncos Power Rating – -2.25
Schedule – Easy – At large games vs Detroit, vs New York Jets, @ Jacksonville
Key losses: DT Jurrell Casey, TE Nick Vannett, CB AJ Bouye, OLB Jeremiah Attaochu, RT Juwan James, RB Phillip Lindsey
Key additions: QB Teddy Bridgewater, CB Ronald Darby, CB Kyle Fuller, RB Mike Boone, DT Shamar Stephen
Key draft picks: CB Patrick Surtain, RB Javonte Williams, LB Baron Browning and a bunch of smaller names
Summary: The defense should be good… Well, if they can finally stop the run. Opponents ran 130 yards per game vs Denver which was 25th worst in the league. This Broncos team was pretty injured last year and it all started out with Courtland Sutton’s torn ACL in the very first game. There was also a point where this team had to play a game with no quarterback and Fangio had to have Phillip Lindsey and a few other players take wild-cat snaps. The Broncos were supposed to have one of the easiest schedules in the league last year and it ended up being one of the hardest due to teams like the Chargers, Dolphins and Raiders exceeding expectations. Denver’s Pythagorean win total adjusted for 17 games was 6.1 which wasn’t a far cry from the 5.31 adjusted wins they had achieved. Fangio drafted a big cornerback in Patrick Surtain and he is now reunited with Kyle Fuller from the Bears and a nice addition in Ronald Darby from Philly. My biggest concern is the offensive line which was ignored. Denver had some bad luck with Ju’Wuan James hurting himself in non-team activities forcing the hand of Denver to cut him. The Quarterback might be an issue because it is now obvious that Drew Lock isn’t a franchise guy and Teddy Bridgewater might make it more difficult for this team decide in which direction to go. I don’t see an upgrade there. My number is slightly below 8 wins so I might take a look at this under at some point.
My number: 7.96
Action – Find a good book and play this under
