The Montreal Canadians are headed to the Stanley Cup Finals!!! The Habs were able to defeat the Vegas Golden Knights in 6 games behind Carey Price’s unbelievable performance. I think in every article I’ve wrote about this series, Price has been mentioned but honestly words won’t do his performance justice. He continues to shine and is finally getting the respect he deserves. Lets keep in mind, Price was hurt towards the end of the regular season and put on an absolute showcase this post season. He finished Game 6 with a +1.21 GSAx and made a save that eventually led to Lehkonen’s OT winner. We now move onto Game 7 where either the Tampa Bay Lightning or New York Islanders will join the Montreal Canadians in the Stanley Cup Final.
New York Islanders (+155) @ Tampa Bay Lightning (-175)
Sticking with the theme of goalies, lets talk about Andrei Vasilevskiy. Vasilevskiy has also been outstanding these playoffs and leads the league in GSAx. If the Lightning do advance, it will be one of the greatest goaltending showdowns will see since the Brodeur/ Roy 2001 Stanley Cup Finals. A major storyline in this game is whether or not Tampa’s top guy in Nikita Kucherov will be able to play. He took a nasty slash towards the end of Game 6 and didn’t return to the ice. Kucherov was held out of the Lightning’s lineup in the regular season only to be brought back just in time for the playoffs. There’s been a lot of discrepancy around this move, since the Bolts were able to avoid salary cap issues. Speaking of injuries, the Islanders captain Anders Lee may return for Game 7 which could provide a spark for them. He’s been hurt all playoffs but has been skating with the team these past few days. In a series where the Long Island Islanders weren’t given a chance, they’ve held up to the test and analytics can prove it. They have more high danger scoring chances than the Lightning this series, along with a better conversion rate of those chances. This issue has been (I know its getting repetitive, but it’s true) their goaltending. Varlamov played a great Game 6 and will likely be the starter in Game 7 as well.
Game 7’s are always tough to handicap because as we know, anything can happen. The Bolts are heavy home favorites in this matchup and rightfully so. On paper, they have the best team remaining in the playoffs. However, as we saw in the Vegas/Montreal series, that doesn’t mean much. I know the old saying that one player doesn’t make a team but stats don’t back that up. With Kucherov in the lineup Tampa Bay has a higher expected goals, high danger chances, and Power Play %. Tampa Bay’s Power Play has been an absolute juggernaut this post season and it’s because of him. It’s something they rely on heavily to score goals. Tampa Bay comes into this game at one of the lowest prices they’ve been offered at on home ice. It’s hard to back the Lightning here even at -175 due to the unforeseen circumstances. Instead, we look at the total which has been something I’ve done these past few games. You always here back the under in Game 7 but, I don’t think that’s the case here. I believe Kucherov will play and aid Tampa’s offense, specifically their powerplay. Both teams have some incredible offensive firepower that can put the puck in the net. Beauvillier and Barzal have been great for the Islander’s with both of them having some of the highest expected goal % these playoffs. For the final game in this series, I’m taking the over.
Pick: NYI/ TB Over 5.0 , -130 (Risk 1.3 Units)
