1st game – Houston vs Detroit +193 O/U 7
I think the books might have overlooked this a bit. The wind is swirling at Tiger stadium at 15+MPH blowing into the left foul line. Lefty, Framber Valdez is pitching for the Astros with a nice 3.77 FIP with a .99 Whip. What’s even better is that the Tigers rank dead last in batting against Lefties. The price actually tells you that. A Mize man is pitching for the tigers today. His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) isn’t that good at 4.8 but at least he only has a 1.12 WHIP and a 3.6 ERA. I don’t understand why this total is so large when the wind is blowing in like this vs a home team who struggles to hit the ball. This is also one of those early games where the batters could take a little time to get it rolling. I think in a 7 inning game, 7 runs is a blessing to take a shot at and we will put 2.5 stars on it.
Under 7 runs – 2.5 stars
LA Angels vs Rays -152 O/U 7.5
This is an interesting game here. Tampa ended up eaking out the win yesterday but I have to wonder if this is one of those breather days. Tampa Bay didn’t get that nice Thursday off and had to finish out their series win vs the Red Sox before playing this Angel team who had to travel. The Angels did however get a day off and they now have a very good pitcher in Alex Cobb who has a not so good ERA of 4.41 but a nice FIP of 2.39. Positive regression is what I am looking for here. The Rays have lefty Shane McClanahan on the mound today who is an average at best pitcher showing a 4.0 FIP and a 1.3 WHIP. The Angels actually rank a nice 5th in wRC+ vs lefties and even though Mike Trout is still injured, this team could make a little noise at least the first 5 of these innings vs a tired Rays squad. Taking the value here.
Angels 1st 5 +125 – 1.5 stars
