Have I mentioned betting baseball can be really frustrating? Cool. Onto my picks (which I dangerously feel really good about today). Let’s go!
Pirates/Rockies over 12 (-110), 1.5 units: There’s a reason this total is so high. A few weeks ago the fledgling Pirates lost 10 games in a row. Since then they’ve won 6 out of their last 9 contests and they’ve averaged a healthy 5 runs per game during that span. Meanwhile, the Rockies continue to demonstrate their split personality, having won 25 of their 31 games at Coors Field and looking like a completely different team when they play there, particularly on offense. Denver will be humid and mild today as the Rockies return home after they predictably lost 4 out of their last 5 games on their latest road trip. Let’s look at some of the disparities in the Rockies’ offense at home/away:
- 239 runs at home, 97 runs away
- 391 hits at home, 232 away
- .283 batting average at home, .196 away
- .473 slugging percentage at home, .296 away
We could go on but you get the point. I can’t pick the Rockies’ side today because I don’t trust Kyle Freeland (7.76 ERA, 1.99 WHIP over 26.2 innings). He looked better in his last start but overall he’s showed a real lack of command and he’s allowed way too many homeruns (9 in his last 5 starts). While Tyler Anderson’s (4.82 ERA, 1.23 WHIP over 80.1 innings) profile isn’t quite as troubling, he still lacks the dynamism and delivery of a dependable starter, as his 4.48 FIP indicates. As I type this I’ve talked myself into a 1.5 unit play (initially I only had 1 unit)– it sets up too well for a bit hitting day. I’ll take the over on two teams ready to bust out their bats against two below-average pitchers.
Yankees win (-153), 2 units: The Yankees are no-doubt happy to return home after getting cleanly swept by their rival Red Sox at Fenway. Now down a full 6.5 games in the AL East, the Yankees welcome the Los Angeles Angels to town. In 40 innings, today’s NYY starter Michael King (4.05 ERA, 1.38 WHIP) has had his ups and downs. I like his profile a little more than most. He does a great job at containing homeruns (.9/9 innings) and his LOB rate is a healthy 73%. His four-seam velocity is also exceptional. Today the Yankees will oppose Dylan Bundy (6.68 ERA, 1.39 WHIP over 63.1 innings), who seems to be on the decline. As FanGraphs noted, “every one of his pitches has dropped significantly in both raw spin and BU; the smallest drops came in at -160 rpm and -1.4 BU.” With Mike Trout still on the sidelines and the Yankees looking for some positive regression, I have to take the home team Bronx-Bombers at a decent price.
Astros -2.5 (even), 1 unit: This is one of the most lopsided setups I’ve seen in awhile. Greinke will oppose Baltimore’s Thomas Eshelman (7.27 ERA, 1.50 WHIP over 8 innings), who just got smashed 5 days ago by the Astros in only his second start. Now Houston is back at home, the bats are looking to return to form and the Orioles have to get by Houston’s ace in Zack Greinke (3.56 ERA, 1.11 WHIP over 98.2 innings)? Good luck Orioles (watch, with my luck, Baltimore explodes and they win 10-2, ha).
Giants win (+150, 1 unit) and Full Game under 8 (+105), 1 unit: This isn’t a parlay but I wouldn’t hate that move. June hasn’t been great for Trevor Bauer (2.57 ERA, 0.97 WHIP over 101.2 innings). Though his profile still shows strong numbers, the Dodgers’ 30 year old right hander recently said “I have the worst home run luck in the league” on Twitter. He sounds frustrated. This blog on FanGraphs disagrees with his assertion but be that as it may, Bauer has a subpar 3.55 ERA in June and his FIP is nearing the 4.00 mark. He’ll have to improve today against the Giants and their starter, Anthony DeSclafani (2.77 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 3.33 FIP over 87.2 innings). San Francisco has won 10 of their last 12 games and many of those victories can be credited to their burgeoning offense, which has averaged nearly 7 runs (6.91) over that span. They also still own a 3 1/2 game lead over the Dodgers in the NL West. The Giants have owned the Dodgers lately, winning 3 straight against last year’s champs, and they’ll no doubt head into today’s matchup full of confidence. I’ll take the Giants for plus money in a low scoring game.
