The Stanley Cup Finals are finally upon us as the Montreal Canadians try to dethrone the Tampa Bay Lightning, who look to repeat as Champions. Montreal is hoping to win their first Stanley Cup since 1993. The Canadians and Lightning each have had completely different paths to get to this point. Montreal has been a heavy underdog in every series so far but, has continued to defy the odds. Contrary to the Canadians, the Bolts have been heavy favorites in every series.
Game 1: Montreal Canadians (+170) @ Tampa Bay Lightning (-200)
Looking at this series, the main storyline will be the goaltending matchup. Andrei Vasilevskiy leads the playoffs in GSAx and SGAA. However, Carey Price right behind him in both of those categories. The second storyline, will be special teams. The return of Nikita Kucherov has sparked this Tampa Bay powerplay which is converting at a rate of 37.7 in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Kucherov is a game time decision for tonight’s game after taking a brutal slash in Game 6 vs the Islanders. Another game time decision tonight is Joel Armia, who has been a key contributor to Montreal’s penalty killing success. The Habs have not allowed a powerplay goal in 13 straight games, going 30 for 30 during that period. They come into tonight’s game with a 93.5 penalty kill rate, the best in the playoffs. Montreal plays a neutral zone trap which throws a lot of teams off, by slowing down the opposition trying to enter the attacking zone. They then use this to force turnovers and spark their transition game, leading to scoring chances. The Canadians play the neutral zone trap to perfection which is why it’s been so successful. This playing style is similar to the 2003 New Jersey Devils who went on to win the Stanley Cup that year.
For Game 1 tonight, the Lightning have again increased their fan capacity at Amalie Arena from 14,805 (77.5%) to 16,300 (85.4%). The Bolts have been great all year at home during the regular season and continued that trend in the playoffs. Montreal has been decent in Game 1’s these playoffs. They’ve won 2 out of 3 Game 1’s but most recently lost Game 1 vs Vegas by a score of 4-1. Tampa Bay has struggled in Game 1’s these playoffs losing 2 out of 3. The Lightning enter this game with an implied probability of roughly 70%. At -200 it’s hard to lay that number, especially given what Montreal has been able to do vs heavy favorites. This again is another series where the Canadians continue to be disrespected. They matchup well with the Lightning and have the ability to shut down Tampa Bay’s deadly powerplay. In Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals, I’ll take the road underdog in the Montreal Canadians.
Pick: Montreal Canadians +170 (Risk 1.00 Unit)
