Marlins vs Braves -118 O/U 9
Miami’s ace is taking the mound tonight in Sandy Alcantara who has a solid 3.59 FIP and a great 1.07 WHIP over 106 innings. Kyle Muller is starting tonight for the Braves who has a very nice 1.76 FIP but only over 10 innings. Muller’s AAA numbers are much higher at 5.15 FIP and I think that those numbers are closer to what he actually is. The Brave’s advantage today is that they are the better hitting team ranking number 12 in wRC+ to Miami’s 23rd respectively, but Miami’s bullpen has been red hot ranking number 1 in WAR at 3.2 and number 1 in FIP at an amazing 3.39. Due to this, and Alcantara pitching, I think Miami has more than a decent shot to win this at + money.
Marlins +112 – 1.5 stars
Astros vs Indians +146 O/U 10
Well this is a pretty high total for a Cleveland game and the reason behind it is that they have had some great baserunning. They rank dead last is LOB and they are 27th in wRC+. Regression is due for this +.500 team at some point. Houston is the best hitting team out there and the reason that this total is so high. They also have the much better pitcher in Jake Odorizzi who commands a 3.7 FIP compared to Eli Morgan at 6.71. Don’t over think this. Take Houston 1st 5 at -170. The only think that could hurt this Astros team is their bullpen.
Houston 1st 5 -170 – 2 stars
