Game one between the Bucks and Suns kicks off tonight as we look to crown a new NBA Champion. While Bucks’ star Giannis Antetokounmpo looks like he won’t play in the first contest, this should be a contentious series that I expect to go at least 6 games. “Suns in 4” or “Bucks in 5” just doesn’t seem very likely to me since both of these teams are so good at home and so well-balanced. Before we get to our bets and predictions for game one, let’s look at some team rankings and statistics:
ATS Record: Suns- 1st overall (covering 60.9%), Bucks- 20th overall (covering 47.2%)
Offensive Efficiency: Suns- 4th overall, Bucks- 6th overall
Defensive Efficiency: Suns- 9th overall, Bucks- 10th overall
Offensive Rating in Playoffs: Suns, 10th out of 16, Bucks- 11th out of 16
Defensive Rating in Playoffs: Suns, 2nd out of 16, Bucks- 1st out of 16
Effective Field Goal Percentage: Suns- 3rd overall, Bucks- 2nd overall
Pace: Suns- 27th overall, Bucks- 2nd overall
Point Differential in Playoffs: Suns- 2nd out of 16 (+7), Bucks- 4th out of 16 (+6.1)
Game One Bets: Suns 1Q -2 (-110), 1 unit and
Middleton over 39.5 P/A/R (-120), 2 units and
Suns -5 (-135), 2 units
Two of the association’s most well-balanced and consistent teams all year meet for the final series of the NBA season. While injuries have plagued this year’s playoffs and many pundits want an asterisk next to the 2021 title, I say these two organizations are very deserving of their respective spots. The journey for Phoenix has been no picnic– they defeated last year’s champions in their first series in 6 games, swept the always-formidable Denver Nuggets, and shut-down a Kawhi-less Clippers team without big performances from Devin Booker. Defense and brilliant team-basketball led by one of the NBA’s premiere court generals in Chris Paul has led them to this opportunity. The Bucks entered the playoffs as the #3 seed but that only seemed to work in their favor. From the get-go Milwaukee played with fire, embarrassing last year’s Eastern Conference champions in just 4 games (3 of those ending by double-digit margin), leaving Jimmy Butler and the Heat in shock. Even more impressive was their long, grueling series against the Brooklyn Nets, where even Kevin Durant’s magical offense couldn’t overcome superstar production from Antetokounmpo and a defense that never folded. In 6 games, the Bucks took down the feisty Atlanta Hawks to win the East. Four of those contests were without the Greek-freak, which only made it more impressive. The Suns have never won an NBA title and it’s been 50 years since Milwaukee became champion (1971).
Like most years, the 2021 NBA Finals will be won not because of one star or one dominating player, but by who plays better defense. Both the Suns and Bucks have reached new heights of defensive effort in the playoffs. The Suns have allowed the least points among all playoff teams so far at only 101.9 per game. The Bucks are right behind them in 2nd, allowing only 103.7 per game. Although I lean to the under Tuesday, the totals are lined at numbers where I see little advantage (halftime: 108.5, full game: 219). It’s a pass for me in game one but we’ll keep looking for opportunities to hit an under with these two exceptional defenses.
Without Giannis tonight, Milwaukee will need to play as aggressive and confident as they did in their last series against the Hawks. Khris Middleton did a fantastic job stepping into the primary-producer role for his team, averaging 28 ppg after Giannis went down with a knee injury. He also led his team in rebounds in 3 out of 4 of those games. It wasn’t only Middleton, though. Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez, “crazy eyes” Bobby Portis and others put in solid performances on offense and defense to help the Bucks surpass Atlanta. I give Milwaukee a ton of credit for their effort and resilience up until this point. That being said, I think this is the Suns series to control.
Chris Paul had to take a step back and recover in the Western Conference Finals after exposure to COVID-19, but that might’ve only helped the Suns’ chances this year. He rested his shoulder and arm and other aliments that have bothered him (and that predictably haunt anyone who’s played in the NBA since 2005). Paul is fresh and the Suns have no reported injuries heading into the final showdown. I imagine his 41 point (16/24) showing in game six against the Clippers silenced any doubt that Paul is ready to win his first title. That’s also a great outlook for Devin Booker. The young star plays his best when he doesn’t have to hold the offensive load squarely on his shoulders. The reality is he’s not ready for that sort of responsibility, at least not most nights. Together with DeAndre Ayton playing some spectacular basketball at center and a team full of young talent, I don’t see the Suns having any issue staying ahead tonight at their arena. I see Phoenix going up early and maintaining a lead; the home-crowd advantage, the seasoned leadership of Paul, and the energetic style of the Suns’ balanced attack should create a nerve-racking and overwhelming feel for Middleton and his teammates.
On the year, the Suns were the 2nd best ATS team in the NBA at home, covering at a rate of 63.6%. The Bucks, on the other hand, were one of the worst ATS team on the road, covering at a clip of only 42.2%. Only the Celtics, Warriors and Cavaliers were worse. As an underdog they’re even more pitiful, covering at only 37.5%. Of course the Bucks haven’t been an underdog often (8 games during the regular season), but it doesn’t help that Phoenix covered 59.4% as a favorite this year. Not a great outlook for tonight if you’re a Bucks fan. I’ll take the Suns by margin in the first quarter, the Suns at a reduced price of -5 overall, which I think is worth the juice, and an over on Khris Middleton’s P/A/R prop since I think he’ll be desperately trying to keep his Bucks within reach. Good luck tonight!
Lookout for my podcast today, Laying the Points with FarleyBets (episode 8), where I’ll be providing an NBA Finals preview there, too. I’ll also cover NFL future bets and some lookahead bets for the big UFC card this Saturday.
