We snatched a 1-1 day yesterday after the Tigers couldn’t stop the Rangers from scoring BUT, the almighty, elite (ahem) Diamondbacks pulled out a W for us! The Mets game never happened. Here are my favorite plays today!
Indians (game 1, +140), 1 unit: The Indians desperately need a win. Riding a 7-game losing streak heading into today, Cleveland takes on the Tampa Bay Rays in a doubleheader. J.C. Mejia (6.18 ERA, 1.27 WHIP over 27.2 innings) will start for the away team and while his numbers have been declining, I think it may be more of a settling-in process. Mejia has a great frame and solid velocity but his lack of variety has allowed way too many opportunities for batters in his last few starts. As a reliever, Mejia was nearly perfect. I expect some positive regression for the 24 year old and even if he isn’t brilliant today, I’d rather play on him than Michael Wacha (5.26 ERA, 1.40 WHIP over 51.1 innings). At 30 years old and 953 innings pitched, Wacha has a ton of miles on his big right arm. He’s good for a sterling performance here and there but on a bad day, he can be really exposed. I think this may be one of those days. Neither of these teams are juggernauts on offense (although yesterday was quite the explosion) but I think Wacha is in a more vulnerable spot. I’m on the tribe to get a much-needed victory as they look to hold onto their chances at a postseason run.
Mets first 5 -0.5 (game 1, -120), 1.5 units: Check out my write up from yesterday on this game. Instead of Brett Anderson, the Brewers will start Corbin Burnes (2.41 ERA, 0.90 WHIP over 82 innings) in the first contest of a doubleheader Wednesday. Instead of fading a play on deGrom, that only gives us more value. The world’s best pitcher should be primed and ready for some redemption after a rare 3 runs allowed in his last start against Atlanta. For most pitchers that’s not a terrible day. For deGrom it’s infuriating. If the Mets can muster one run during his time on the mound I think it may be enough. I’m on the Mets early in a short game. Expect more runs and volatility in game 2.
Red Sox/Angels over 9 (-110), 1.5 units: This has big hits written all over it. A closely fought series between Boston and LAA leads to their final contest of the year. The Sox lead the series 3-2 thus far. Each team will start one of their more vulnerable throwers today in Eduardo Rodriguez for Boston and Andrew Heaney for the halos. While I like Rodriguez’s profile a little more, the proclivity for both of these starters to allow homeruns, big hits and base runners has me favoring both offenses this afternoon. I don’t know who will win this game but 9 feels way too low for two of the better hitting teams in MLB.
Giants (-177), 2 units: Plenty of modern baseball cannot be handicapped the same way as the days of old. It ain’t all about the pitchers. Tonight, in this game, that’s exactly what it’s about for me. Alex Wood (3.89 ERA, 1.19 WHIP over 76.1 innings) gets the start for San Francisco this evening and he’ll go up against Johan Oviedo (5.14 ERA, 1.55 WHIP over 49 innings) and the struggling St. Louis Cardinals. Wood boasts a solid profile and numbers that can back it up– 4.00 xERA, 3.88 FIP, 3.60 xFIP, and 1.09 HR/9 innings– not elite, but solid. Oviedo, on the other hand, is starting to struggle. The 23 year old young-gun is experiencing some of the same negative regression he did two years ago, with devolving xERA and LOB rates and accelerating issues with command. In his last 3 starts he’s permitted 19 hits and 14 runs over 13.2 innings. I think it’s fair to call that negative regression. The Giants have conceded two games to St. Louis in this series but don’t expect a third. I love Wood and the Giants to secure a win tonight at home.
