The Open Championship Preview & Picks

July 13, 2021

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We’re fresh off a great week at the John Deere Classic where we picked up +4.59 Units. Harold Varner III (+250) and Jhonattan Vegas (+225) both cashed for top 20 picks. S. Power (+115) over C. Davis also hit for us in matchups. We just missed on the outrights with Adam Schenk (+16000) and Hank Lebioda (+5500) who both finished in the top 10. Lucas Glover wound up winning the John Deere going off at +4000. We now head across the pond to preview the final major of the year.

The delayed 2021 Open Championship returns to Royal St George’s Golf Club, for a tournament that was due to be played in July 2020. Six major tournaments have taken place since Shane Lowry’s raised the Claret Jug back in 2019. This was the first cancellation of The Open since World War II. All players who were exempt into the championship back in 2020 have their spots for this year tournament. Even with the ongoing pandemic, 32,000 fans will be allowed to attend the tournament each day. In addition to the Claret Jug which they’ll be able to keep until the following tournament, the winner will also receive automatic entry to all future Open Championships until the age of 60. The champion will also gain entry to the next five Masters, US PGA and US Open tournaments along with five year members to both the European Tour and PGA Tour.

Sungjae Im and Si Woo Kim of South Korea, have both dropped out citing preparation for the upcoming Olympics. All athletes from South Korea who win an Olympic medal are allowed to forgo a two-year military stint, which is mandatory for males between ages 18-28. So a spot on the podium means a little more for those two as they are looking to continue their careers on the PGA Tour without having a two year pause.

In addition to those two, some other major names have withdrawn from the Open due to heightened Covid-19 protocols or other reasons. The list includes; Hideki Matsuyama, Zach Johnson, Bubba Watson, Kevin Na, Cameron Davis, Matthew Wolff and Danny Lee.

Tournament Information:

Dates: July 15, 2021- July 18, 2021
Location: Sandwich, Kent, United Kingdom
Course: Royal St George’s Golf Club
Par: 70 (4x 3’s/ 12x 4’s/ 2x 5’s)
Length: 7,189 yards
Format: 72 hole stroke play
Field/ Cut: 156 Players | Top 70 & Ties Make The Cut
Greens: Bentgrass (40%), Fescue (60%)
Fairways: Bentgrass and Fescue
Purse: $11,500,000 / Winner $2.07 Million
Fedex Cup Points: 600
Stimpmeter: 13+, Fast
Green Size: 6,000 sq. ft.
Water Hazards: None
Bunkers/ Waste Area: Plentiful, traditional links style
Stroke Average in 2011: 72.86 (+2.86)

Course History/ Guide:

Royal St. George will host the Open for the first time since 2011 when Darren Clarke captured his first major at the age of 42. The Open has been hosted at Royal St. George fourteen times prior. This is a traditional style links course that offers wide fairways but accuracy is key off the tee as the fescue can be punishing. Achieving accuracy off the tee is often difficult here as there are several blind tee shots on the course. The wind is also a major factor as Royal St. George’s is located off the Kent coastline. There are virtually no trees to offer relief from this wind. The low ball hitters will certainly have a slight advantage here. This course is known for its tall sand dunes, deep bunkers, and unforgiving fescue. The greens also offer a challenge of their own as they have plenty of run off areas with winding slopes. The most recent renovation to this course was back in 2021; the bunkers on the 4th and 7th hole were restored, a sand area was added near the 5th green, two bunkers on 17 were converted to into a swale, and the reconfiguration of the bunkers on the 18th hole.

With all Open Championships, each course has their own attributes. One major point of contention this week will be the undulating fairways. On Royal St. George the fairways will often provide uneven lies and sometimes kick the ball into the rough. However, the players can reside in the fact that the rain should have softened up the fairways up a bit, limiting the unpredictability of the bounces. As with most sports, luck will always play a factor and the winner here will certainly need some. Even with the unpredictability off the tee, driving distance does matter as the long hitters dominated the leader board back in 2011. Speaking of long hitters, Bryson DeChambeau will debut his new caddie, Brian Zeigler.

When analyzing the Open Championship, one thing you always hear is to avoid first time entrants, as well as the Americans. Even with Spieth winning the Open back in 2017, Americans have struggled across the pond and there are stats to back it up. In the last 10 Open Championships, 113 players finished in the top 10. Only 43 of those players were Americans (38%). The last player to win the Open Championship in their debut was Ben Cutis, back in 2003.

The winning score for this tournament is usually around -5 with the only outliers coming in 1993 when Greg Norman posted a -13 and Henrik Stenson in 2016 when he shot a -20 to win at Royal Troon. The average winning score across all Open Championships has been -9.0 since 1980. However, at Royal St. George the average winning score has been -4.2.

Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:

Architect: Laidlaw Purves
Comparable Courses:
- Open Championship Rota
- Carnoustie
- Royal Portrush
- St. Andrews
- Royal Birkdale
- Royal Troon

TV Information:

Round 1: Thursday, July 15, 2021 – Peacock* – 1:30 AM – 4:00 AM, Golf Channel* – 4:00 AM – 3:00 PM , Peacock* – 3:00 PM – 4:00 PM
Round 2: Friday, July 16, 2021 – Peacock* – 1:30 AM – 4:00 AM, Golf Channel* – 4:00 AM – 3:00 PM , Peacock* – 3:00 PM – 4:00 PM
Round 3: Saturday, July 17, 2021 – Golf Channel* – 5:00 AM – 7:00 AM, NBC* – 7:00 AM – 3:00 PM
Round 4: Sunday, July 18, 2021 – Golf Channel* – 4:00 AM – 7:00 AM, NBC* – 7:00 AM – 2:00 PM

Weather:

Thursday: AM Clouds/ PM Sun 59 F, 10 mp/h NW, 86% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain
Friday: Partly Cloudy 60 F, 9 mp/h NW, 85% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
Saturday: Partly Cloudy 63 F, 8 mp/h NNW, 83% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
Sunday: Partly Cloudy 64 F, 8 mp/h ESE, 78% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain

Tournament Trends:

5 of the past 7 Open winners had won in one of their 5 previous starts
5 of the last 6 winners at Royal St. George’s were 1st time Major winners
8 of the last 10 Open winners were inside the Top 40 WGR
7 of the last 10 winners were aged 32 years or older
8 of the last 10 winners finished in at least the top 15 in one of their three previous Open starts
10 of the last 11 winners had at least four previous Open appearances
9 of the last 11 winners had at least four previous top 10 finishes that season
11 of the last 11 winners had at least four previous career wins
13 of the last 14 winner had a previous top 10 or better in a previous Open
8 of the last 10 winners had already won an event in the same year
6 of the last 10 winners played in the Scottish Open the week before
37 of the last 38 Major winners were ranked in the top 50 WGR
14 of the last 15 winner have recorded a previous top 10 at the Open