We’re 6-3 betting these NBA Finals and we’re on to game 4! Let’s get right into it:
Bucks -4.5 (-105), 2 units and
Giannis over 53.5 P/A/R (-119), 1.5 units and
Chris Paul over 21.5 points (-120), 1.5 units:
We correctly predicted that game three would go in favor of the home team and that it did. Led by another sensational performance from Giannis, the Bucks were able to pull this series closer. Now the Suns only have a 1 game lead and it feels like the championship is up for grabs again. Can the Bucks win 2 straight at home and send the battle back to Phoenix all tied up? We think so, and I also think they will cover.
If I showed you the team stats from game three without showing you the teams and asked you to guess who did what before Sunday, I imagine you might have assumed that it was the Suns who owned the better numbers. Just like what we saw from Phoenix at their home arena, the Bucks took control from opening tipoff and never lost their grip. Here are some of the statistical disparities:
Turnovers: Suns- 15, Bucks- 9
Fast Break Points: Suns- 6, Bucks- 16
Rebounds: Suns- 36, Bucks- 47
Assists: Suns- 21, Bucks- 28
Three Point %: Suns- 29%, Bucks- 39%
Free Throw %: Suns- 68.6%, Bucks- 76.9%
Largest Lead: Suns- 6, Bucks- 25
The Suns were good; the Bucks were just better. They were fast, energetic, efficient, and seemingly free of anxiety. And when you see that the Bucks actually out-did another ballclub from the charity stripe? Wow… what a night!
We all know that home-team-advantage is a real intangible in the playoffs– it’s one reason why teams vie for the highest seed. But the difference in how these two teams play at home and on the road in the playoffs is rather glaring. Milwaukee has only lost one game all postseason at Fiserv Forum. The Suns have only lost two at their arena. Perhaps one COVID year in a foreign bubble format has us all forgetting that playing in front of your own screaming fans is a real boost of adrenaline and a real dilemma for the road team’s nerves. That’s especially true for how young and inexperienced this Suns team really is. Although the Suns have impressed, I don’t expect a different result in game four. I think the aggressive style of Giannis and his supporting cast chug the fuel of their fans and grab another win by margin. And I think the books aren’t lining this properly. The value is, once again, on an underestimated home team. A line of -4.5 is barely 2 full possessions.
You know who’s not young and inexperienced? Chris Paul. CP3 has led his teams in assists in all 3 games of this series and 2/3 of the games in their points. If anyone is going to shred the shakiness of a hostile crowd, it’s Paul. His superstar foe, meanwhile, has played absolutely absurd thus far. Remember when the P/A/R prop for Giannis was set at 42.5 in game two? LOL. I repeat– L. O. L. Sure, much of that was because of his injury concerns heading into that contest, but I think it’s fair to assume that he won’t be sitting or resting again any time soon. The Greek-freak has been nothing but extraordinary in this series and it’s obvious that he matches up perfectly against the Suns. Phoenix is relentless on defense and well-coached; they just don’t have the size to stop Giannis. DeAndre Ayton is a good defender but he’s not great just yet. The rest of the Suns are just too small. The front court belongs to Giannis and although his P/A/R line is sky high, I still have to take it. The former MVP is averaging 34.3 points per game and 14 rebounds per game in this series. He may not need any assists to eclipse the P/A/R mark once again.
I don’t know about you but I’ve really missed sports the last few days. The MLB All-Star game is fun but it’s too volatile and hokey to bet. The NBA Finals are back and we’re excited to watch the big game and make a little coin in the process. Good luck!
