Alan Baudot vs Rodrigo Nascimento -350
The Odds in this fight are telling you that Rodrigo should win fairly easily. I can’t disagree with that being that he looks the part and has the better ground game but I do not want to lay this kind of a price on inexperience. What I do like is that these fighters seem to finish pretty quickly. Alan is 8-2 with 7 KO/TKOs and 7 out of his 10 fights were over before the second round. Rodrigo is 8-1 with 2 KO/TKOs and 6 submissions. Out of his 9 fights, 7 haven’t made it out of the first round and he has never went to a decision. I am not going to over think this one and I’ll grab the under 1.5 rounds.
Under 1.5 rounds -150
Islam Makhachev vs Thiago Moises +475
Well the main event doesn’t look like much of a fight at all when the favorite is laying -700 type chalk. Islam is one of the best 155 fighters in my opinion and Thiago isn’t exactly a pushover. Islam is a fantastic fighter especially on the ground. I have always called him a poor man’s Khabib but maybe he is more of a middle class Khabib as of late. His record is 18-1 with 3 KOs, 8 submissions and 8 decisions. He has beaten good fighters such as Drew Dober and Nick Lentz. Moises is 15-4 with 3 KOs, 6 decisions and 6 submissions. Now the price on Islam is a bit too high in my opinion but I have to think that he wins this fight. Thiago has only lost by decision making the obvious play Islam by decision. Now while I do agree that this is most likely to happen, I also think there is a decent price on Islam winning by submission being that he has such a fantastic ground game. There are 2 ways of profiting off of this fight. There is also miss-price in this market. Islam by unanimous decision is +160 which is 75 cents better than the -115 by normal decision. A favorite of this caliber should be unanimous and this is a great price. I also think that Islam could win by submission so put half your bet size on that to profit both ways.
Makhachev By Submission +350 – 1 star premium shared
Fighter Wins by Unanimous Decision – Islam Makhachev +160 – 2 star premium shared
