The Giants came through with a big win last night but we had the wrong angle playing the first five innings. The Phillies barely showed up. Fortunately the surging Tigers got us a win and we’re now 16-7 since the All-Star break; can’t complain about that! Happy Friday!
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Cubs (-135), 1.5 units: With the trade deadline looming and the Diamondbacks teeter-tottering on the moves they’ll make, this is a prime week to fade MLB’s worst team. Arizona has only lost one game since the break, which I can appreciate, but all 5 of those contests were at home and 3 of them were against the equally weak Pirates. The Diamondbacks may have a slight edge in pitching today with Zac Gallen (3.86 ERA, 1.33 WHIP over 46.2 innings) on the mound, but they certainly don’t have the better team. The Cubbies have struggled since the break, getting owned by their NL Central rival Cardinals in St. Louis and starting off the second half of the season with a loss to Arizona. Reeling from these losses and losing traction in the playoff race, Chicago needs to take advantage of the next 7 games at Wrigley Field. Zach Davies (4.35 ERA, 1.48 WHIP over 97.1 innings) will get the call Friday for Chicago. Davies has a generally solid profile and he’s particularly good at limiting homers (0.83/9 innings), but I like him even more today since the last time these two clubs met, it was Arizona who eked out a win. Davies played okay, allowing 2 runs in 4.2 innings, but at home he tends to be more comfortable and commanding. The Cubs are a better team at Wrigley (28-17) and the Diamondbacks are absolutely atrocious on the road (11-38). I’ll take the home-town squad for 1.5 units.
Yankees (EVEN), 1.5 units: The Red Sox are riding an 8-2 season record into today’s reignited rivalry so I have to refrain from throwing out too many units on this one. That being said, Gerrit Cole’s (2.63 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 158 Ks over 120 innings) recent showings and an always dangerous lineup give me hope that the Yanks can turn that around today. Last time Cole opposed the Red Sox lineup he commanded the mound and looked in his prime, allowing only a single run over 6 innings. Today he’ll face off against Eduardo Rodriguez (5.19 ERA, 1.33 WHIP over 120 innings). Presenting an average to slightly above average profile, Rodriguez performed really well last time he started against the Bronx Bombers, permitting just 2 hits and 0 runs over 5.2 innings. While that was impressive, I expect some negative regression from the 28 year old today. His LOB rates and velocity is free-falling and the Yankees’ bats are starting to heat up– they’ve outscored their opponents 28-16 since the break. With Cole on the mound throwing strikeouts (he leads baseball in K’s this year) and a New York lineup dying for revenge against a hittable thrower, I’m on the Yankees in the underdog role.
Tigers (+105), 1 unit: Shit, why not? The Tigers held us up yesterday and they’ve now won seven, yes SEVEN games in a row! Eventually the losses will come but at this point it’s beyond a surge– the Tigers will continue to put forth max effort to keep this streak going– and they certainly have the talent to do so. The lesser known Peralta, first name Wily (1.64 ERA, 0.94 WHIP over 33 innings), has been pretty damn sensational so far. The 32 year old veteran has a ridiculous .187 BABIP in his short season, which will surely increase, but as FanGraphs noted, “hitters are going to have to string together a few singles to get to him. He might even have a little strikeout upside if he increases his 19% splitter (18% SwStr%) usage. Surprisingly streamable.” I think Peralta will continue to have success against one of MLB’s most inconsistent offenses today. Kansas City’s 23 year old maverick Kris Bubic (5.03 ERA, 1.52 WHIP over 62.2 innings) will get the nod Friday and while his numbers aren’t awful, his dropping LOB rates and inflating WHIP are a concern against a confident rival in this contest. The Tigers and Royals have maintained a closely-fought series all year, with Detroit having the slight edge with a 7-6 record to this point. Only 2 of Kansas City’s wins have come at home. I’m on the Tigers once again– let’s make it EIGHT in a row!
Giants -1.5 (+110), 2 units: This is going to be a very simple handicap, ready? The Giants just got a huge series win against their arch-rival Dodgers, IN Los Angeles. Very impressive stuff. Known primarily for their elite pitching, San Francisco’s hitters are stepping up and showing how much depth their lineup really has. Pittsburgh comes limping into this series after dropping 4 straight to Arizona, yikes. While I may expect positive regression and redemption from a better team, I don’t from the Pirates. Nor do I expect a let-down game for San Francisco. The Giants need to take advantage of this series at home. It’s one thing to beat the Dodgers and close the gap on the season long series; it’s another thing to start gaining distance in the NL West race. That’s what they could accomplish if they sweep the Pirates at home (LAD heads to Oracle Park again following this 3-game battle). Better pitching, better offense, better team– the Giants are 30-13 at home while Pittsburgh is a putrid 15-34 on the road. True champions beat up on lowly teams and I expect that from San Francisco tonight.
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