A nice 2-1 day was a good start to our week (how about that comeback, Philly?!?)! Onto Tuesday with a much bigger slate; here are my favorite plays:
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Orioles first 5 (+115), 1 unit and
Marlins/Orioles under 9.5 (-110), 2 units: In recent history the only thing that separates these two ballclubs has been their pitching caliber. Miami has owned a better rotation than Baltimore (and most MLB teams) and it’s what keeps them alive and in the hunt for the playoffs. It damn sure isn’t because of their offense. Today Spenser Watkins (1.65 ERA, 1.16 WHIP over 16.1 innings) will take the mound for the Orioles and he’s the reason for this wager. We got behind him last time, much to our delight, and now the 28 year old Watkins will get his 3rd start for Baltimore. His workman-like mentality and diverse arsenal has Charm City pretty excited that they may have found an ace from the minors. While he’s certainly due for some negative regression (his xERA is 4.23) and it’ll come eventually, his confidence and command on the mound is something worth noting. His early marks are superb (0.55 HR/9 innings, 91.4% LOB rate) and he’s facing a Miami offense that’s subpar. He’s also at home and his team had a day of rest before today’s contest– this is a great spot for Baltimore. Sandy Alcantara (3.23 ERA, 1.15 WHIP over 119.2 innings) shows little signs of slowing down and he’s another pitcher we love to get behind. I don’t love that it’ll be hot and humid today at Camden Yards but I don’t think that will limit these two throwers. I’m on the Orioles to take the first 5 since I like their offense considerably better than Miami’s and I’m on the full game under.
Rays (-145), 1.5 units: The Rays own a 8-5 series lead over the Yankees so far in 2021 and this feels like one of those spots where they outdo their division rival once again. Last time Shane McClanahan (3.88 ERA, 1.25 WHIP over 65 innings) went up against the Bronx Bombers, he struggled. Allowing 5 hits and 4 runs in only 3.1 innings at Yankee Stadium, McClanahan’s ferocious but often volatile pitching can cultivate giant slugs and homers a little too often. His 1.25 HR/9 innings speaks to that issue. Still, I’m not down on the guy. His 3.86 xERA and 3.12 xFIP demonstrate projections that are beyond what pundits may prognosticate. While the Yankees have had some success against lefties, I expect McClanahan to look better today. If he can make it into the 5th inning, I really like the Rays chances even more (and it may be worth a live-bet look if he does). Jordan Montgomery (3.96 ERA, 1.18 WHIP over 104.2 innings) has similar numbers to McClanahan but he certainly doesn’t scare me away against this surging Rays’ offense. It’s unclear whether Aaron Judge will return today but if he’s officially out, this line should rise. The Rays are at home where they’re 30-18 on the year and they’ve been lights out since returning from the break, winning 7 out of their last 10 games. I’m on Tampa.
Astros/Mariners No Run in First Inning (-115), 1 unit: This was a scary bet Monday and a good one to fade, but after an offensive showcase from these two squads in their opening matchup (6-0 Astros in the first, 19 runs total), I’m taking a shot on this bet tonight. Chris Flexen (3.35 ERA, 1.21 WHIP over 104.2 innings) seems to be getting better and better as the season goes on, flexing (see what I did there?) a 1.42 ERA over 25.1 innings in July. Lance McCullers Jr. (3.04 ERA, 1.20 WHIP over 91.2 innings) is due for a better performance after surrendering 6 hits and 4 runs over 5 innings in his last start against Cleveland. I don’t have to tell you that when you see any pitcher give up those numbers against the “Guardians,” it’s a real head-scratcher. McCullers Jr. has arguably been Houston’s most consistent pitcher all season and Seattle is a good offense to expect some negative regression from. The Houston defense also has some extra motivation to improve after their atrocious showing last night in Seattle, letting the home-team come back from big deficits on multiple occasions. I’ll take a look at the under but with the way Seattle is hitting and the Astros’ consistently productive offense, I’ll take a value play with two great pitchers in the first inning instead for 1 unit.
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