We earned a 1-0 Friday by putting out a single pick on Twitter— I didn’t see a tremendous amount of value on the board for my free picks. We did go 4-1 in premium picks though, which is something you may want to consider (wink wink, check out the link below). We trudge on with MLB picks as we hit another hot mid-summer weekend!
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Athletics/Angels under 10 (-110), 2 units: The Athletics are finding ways to win in the same fashion as always– solid pitching, solid defense, and not overwhelming but opportunistic offense. Over the last 2 weeks, Oakland is one of the worst teams in MLB in wOBA (.296), slugging percentage (.265) and batting average (.227), yet they continue to earn victories, holding their place in contention in the closely fought AL West playoff race. Today they’ll send Cole Irvin (3.62 ERA, 1.19 WHIP over 117 innings) to the mound for game 3 of their current series against the Angels. Cole doesn’t have the most exceptional numbers but he’s typically above-average at keeping the game within reach, boasting great numbers in both preventing big slugs and limiting walks. While his last start wasn’t as sharp against the Mariners, his last performance against the Angels in mid July was exceptional, limiting them to 0 runs off 7 hits in 7 innings of play. That’s not good for LAA considering how bad their offense has been, too. While Oakland comes in at 28th in the majors in wOBA over the last 2 weeks, LAA isn’t much better at 27th (.300). After two good series against the Twins and Rockies, the Angels bats have gone cold. Jaime Barria (LAA- 6.23 ERA, 138 WHIP over 13 innings) will get his 3rd official start of the year after two strong recent showings. I think both teams continue to underperform at the plate and while I lean Oakland to win 3 in a row, I like the under way more.
Giants (EVEN), 1.5 units: I got this pick at a reduced price at even money yesterday but now it’s gone up to as much as -120 at some books. Houston ace Zack Greinke (10-3, 3.48 ERA, 1.12 WHIP over 126.2 innings) gets the nod for the away team Saturday and while he’s probably still their most reliable pitcher, he’s permitting too many home runs lately, allowing at least 1 in each of his last 5 starts. This is an area where San Francisco thrives– the Giants are 2nd in the majors with 151 homers on the year. While their bats haven’t been as hot over the past few weeks, I think they can get to Greinke. And while the Giants were holding the juggernaut Dodgers to only 9 runs in 3 games this past week, the Astros defense permitted 21 runs in 3 games to a bad Seattle lineup. I suspect the Giants will continue to see more offensive success today. I also like this spot for Alex Wood (3.65 ERA, 1.17 WHIP over 93.2 innings). Wood had a great July (2.82 ERA over 22.1 innings) and will look to continue his success on the dirt in this contest. His improving xERA and other numbers (HR/9 innings, LOB rate, etc.) are good buy signs, at least temporarily. According to Covers.com, the Giants are 4-1 in their last 5 interleague games, 7-3 in their last 10 games against a right-handed starter, and 5-2 in their last 7 games against a starter with a WHIP below 1.15. Take the Giants to out-class the Astros at home today.
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