Another week, another grind in MLB betting. Still winning more than we lose but damn, baseball can be frustrating. Thank God Atlanta pulled it out last night! After a week away in 100 degree temperatures hiking in good ol’ Utah, it’s good to be back home in my routine and writing these articles for you all. Onto my picks for Thursday!
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Mets/Marlins over 8 (-110), 1.5 units: The Mets and Marlins haven’t been exploding lately on offense, which is probably why this total is so low, but this feels like a good spot for more points. The Mets will start struggling Rich Hill (4.10 ERA, 4.52 xERA over 105.1 innings) and the Marlins will start newcomer Braxton Garrett (4.37 ERA, 1.54 WHIP over 22.2 innings), whose 6.88 xERA doesn’t exactly make us believers. Expect a lot of hits today and two teams whose bats are due for positive regression.
Cubs/Rockies over 11.5 (-110), 1.5 units: This is virtually the same exact situation as above AND it’s at Coors Field. Behind two bad starting pitchers in their first game of this series, the Cubs and Rockies combined for 19 points. I think this game will look very similar. Jake Arrieta (5-10, 6.20 ERA, 1.66 WHIP over 78.1 innings) is only getting more exposed as the season trudges on. He’s allowed 23 runs over his last 5 starts. Shockingly, that happened over just 14.4 innings. That’s really bad and I’m not sure what else to say about it. The words “fade candidate” come to mind. Antonio Senzatela (4.58 ERA, 1.40 WHIP over 94.1 innings) has allowed over 3 runs in his last 5 starts and 3 of those contests were on the road. At home he may see even less success. The over is 5-1 in Rockies last 6 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. It’s another over bet for this guy.
Giants win (-160), 2 units: San Francisco is starting to heat up. Winners of 7 of their last 10 games and closing out this series tonight before a tough road matchup against the Brewers, this may not be the most ideal spot for the Giants but, again, I’m betting that they take advantage of a game they should win as they look to hold their top-spot in the NL West. They’re now 3.5 games ahead of the Dodgers and LAD has a few tough series ahead against their Los Angeles rival and the re-charged Phillies. Alex Wood (3.83 ERA, 1.19 WHIP over 98.2 innings) will get the nod Thursday and while he has a hiccup here and there, he’s mostly very dependable. A rough stretch in June hurt his numbers but in 12 of his 18 starts, he only permitted 2 runs or less. He shouldn’t have many issues today. Merrill Kelly (4.38 ERA, 1.23 WHIP over 129.1 innings) will start for the Diamondbacks at home tonight. Kelly has allowed 4 runs in each of his last 2 home starts and his LOB rate (68.1%) and HR allowance (1.11/9 innings) is starting to devolve. The Giants are 37-15 in their last 52 games vs. a right-handed starter– I’ll take the away team.
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