We went undefeated for a second day in a row, hitting the Giants (ML) and Royals (F5) Sunday. That’s 5-0 the last 2 days and 7-1 the last 3. Onto Monday’s small slate!
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Brewers (-180), 2 units: At the time of writing this (Sunday evening) the moneyline is -180 at most books but I imagine it’ll rise the closer we get to first pitch. Adding to the exceptional depth of Milwaukee’s rotation is Freddy Peralta (2.21 ERA, 0.89 WHIP over 114 innings), who they will start Monday. Peralta has had a scintillating year, one without any month where he’s eclipsed an ERA over 3.00, one that boasts an LOB rate that’s still at 85% (HARD to do at this point in the season), and one where his velocity and command has never looked sharper. Fresh off a tough series loss to the Giants (which we cashed on), the Brewers head to Wrigley Field against a damaged Cubs team in the hopes that they pull ahead in the NL Central. The Reds are only far 5 games behind. The Cubs will start Alec Mills (4.40 ERA, 1.44 WHIP over 69.1 innings), who’s far from the worst they have to offer. Mills has been better since coming off the IL in June. According to FanGraphs, “Before the IL stint (back), he had a 5.96 ERA, 5.2 K/9, and 1.46 WHIP. Since returning, he has a 3.76 ERA, 7.5 K/9, and 1.40 WHIP.” Not too shabby. The issue is Chicago’s offense. Traders at the deadline, the Cubs own a rather shallow lineup and the results are clear. They’ve lost 4 straight and 10 of their last 12. The Cubs just got whacked by the White Sox last night so this may be a better spot for redemption, but Milwaukee also lost a second-straight heartbreaker against San Francisco Sunday. The Brew-Crew owns one of the better offenses over the last few weeks and Peralta shouldn’t have any stark challenges against the the Cubs’ below average offense. Take Milwaukee.
Marlins/Padres No Run in First Inning (-125), 2 units: Miami’s Zach Thompson (2.53 ERA, 1.10 WHIP over 42.2 innings) and San Diego’s Joe Musgrove (2.87 ERA, 0.97 WHIP over 122.1 innings) face off in the late game Monday night. Both pitcher’s have elite command (typically), although Thompson has suffered as of late. After a great start to 2021, the 6’7″ right-hander has faced a melee of power-hitting teams through July and into August, including the Mets, Yankees, Padres, Phillies, and Braves. He survived that onslaught with pretty good numbers. Musgrove has only allowed 2 runs over his last 19 innings. I’ll stay away from the total since late-game-offensive-explosions seems to be occurring regularly now, but I expect both of these stud pitchers to come away with a solid 1st inning. These games are also getting more contentious as the playoff races heat up. Give me an NRFI here for 2 units.
