We went 1-1 yesterday, making us 9-2 overall in MLB betting over the last 5 days. Can’t complain about that! Happy Hump Day, people! (is it football season yet…?)
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White Sox/Twins under 9 (-110), 1.5 units: This has the signs of an under game for a few reasons. Firstly, I don’t know how motivated the White Sox will be today. Chicago has a big series coming up against the Yankees. Then they’ll have another contentious series against the Athletics. And both are at home. After another rather meaningless series against the Twins (CHW leads the AL Central by 10.5 games), the Sox are probably pretty excited to leave Minneapolis tonight. When benign situations like this exist, it usually affects the offense more than the pitching. I certainly can’t expect it to alter Lance Lynn’s game (2.04 ERA, 1.05 WHIP over 114.2 innings), since he’s been about as dominant and stable as any pitcher in MLB this season. His 2.78 xERA against an uneventful lineup today has me holding onto plenty of confidence in the 6’5″ ace. The Twins will roll out Bailey Ober (4.99 ERA, 1.30 WHIP over 52.1 innings) Wednesday. Ober has been working on his fast-ball movement and other improvements to his game, but it hasn’t worked very well. Still, Ober at least cares about his performance today and he’ll at least attempt to throw off the White Sox bats. Chicago is 2nd only to the Rockies in homeruns over the last 2 weeks (25), but despite all their hype they’re mid-tier in every other offensive category. Take the under.
Astros -1.5 (-130), 2 units: It’s pretty startling how different the Rockies are at home, isn’t it? Over the past two weeks, with most of their games played at Coors Field, the Rockies have led MLB in homeruns and they’re either top 5 or #1 in most offensive categories. Slugging %, wOBA, batting average, OBP, runs, RBIs– you name it, Colorado is at the top. Coming off 4 straight wins, they started a brand new series against the Astros yesterday and as we all know by now, the obvious happened. Houston blanked the Rockies 5-0 in a game where the Rockies looked completely helpless. Sadly, the NL West bottom-feeder can only count 13 of their 51 wins on the road this season. In another early slot Wednesday, they’ll face off against Framber Valdez (3.22 ERA, 1.30 WHIP over 78.1 innings) as the Astros look to continue winning at home and hope to further separate themselves from the Athletics in the AL West race. Valdez allows a few too many walks (4.14/9 innings) but a 3.51 xERA, 3.62 xFIP, a healthy 77.2% LOB rate and other figures show a pitcher that mostly exhibits great command. He may not need to be at his best against Colorado’s split personality on the road, especially with Anthony Senzatela (4.73 ERA, 1.41 WHIP over 99 innings) on the mound. Senzatela is a solid enough pitcher for the Rockies, certainly not their worst arm, but he’s really struggled on the road this year. He’s allowed at least 3 runs in 6 of his 7 away starts at an average of 4.77 frames per contest. We’d like this even more if Bregman could finally return to the Astros lineup but this is still a 2 unit bet for me. Houston is at home, they have the better pitcher, and the Rockies look lost away from Coors Field. Take the Astros by margin.
Lean Marlins (+140): This is just a lean for me because of the undependable Marlins’ offense, but I’m not too keen on Ryan Weathers (4.26 ERA, 1.31 WHIP over 69.2 innings) here in this spot. According to FanGraphs, “Over 34.1 IP in April and May, Weathers posted a 1.31 ERA and 0.90 WHIP, with a 20.6% K%. Since June 1, Weathers has a 6.12 ERA and 1.61 WHIP over 32.1 IP, with a 14.7% K%.” The negative regression train seems to be sold out on Weathers and while he could improve today against Miami’s bats, who tend to grant improvement for a lot of pitchers, I just can’t trust him. Sandy Alcantara (3.70 ERA, 1.17 WHIP over 136.1 innings), on the other hand, should absolutely experience positive regression today. Fresh off a stinker against the Rockies where he allowed 10 runs in only 3.2 innings, Alcantara had an amazing performance one game prior against the Yankees, permitting just 2 hits and 0 runs over 7 innings. This sort of up-and-down tendency is on brand for the 25 year old and I imagine he’ll be ready to unleash his best stuff today. Just a lean, but Miami has some real value here.
