Coming off a disappointing 0-2 night, I’m looking to bounce back with 1 winner tonight.
August 2021 Record: 10-8-4, +2.63u
*MLB(1u): Blue Jays F5 ML(-135) @ Mariners–9:10 PM CT
The Mariners won Game 1 of this series by a score of 3-2 last night, but I believe the Blue Jays have the edge in Game 2 today. While tonight’s SP’s have similar numbers, I’m much more willing to trust Hyun Jin Ryu given his career track record(3.04 career ERA). Ryu’s 3.62 ERA is somewhat underwhelming, but his road numbers have been much better(3.12 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9). This is likely due to the fact that the Blue Jays have played the majority of their home games in minor league ballparks where hitters have a significant advantage. Tonight’s setting, T-Mobile Park, has historically been friendly to pitchers, and considering the Mariners have hit just .215 against lefties at home since June 1st, the path to a good outing is clear for Ryu tonight. Mariners SP Yusei Kikuchi has pieced together a solid season so far, but this Blue Jays lineup presents a dreadful matchup. As much as hitting in minor league parks has helped the Jays this season, they’ve been able to put together dominant numbers on the road as well. Since June 1st, they’ve hit .292 against lefties on the road, good for second in baseball over that span. Kikuchi’s strikeouts are at an all-time high this season, but he’s also giving up 1.6 HR/9. With a FIP at 4.38(compared to a 3.73 ERA), some regression can be expected from the Japanese lefty. Because of the recent struggles from Toronto’s bullpen, I’m hesitant to play the Blue Jays full game. However, I think Ryu and the Jays offense have what it takes to give themselves a lead heading into the late innings.
