The Northern Trust – Preview & Picks

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This ain’t no hobby!! We catch our second outright winner of the year. Kevin Kisner wins the Wyndham Championship at 55-1 for us. The Wyndham Championship came down to a six-way playoff, which ties a PGA Tour record. Russel Henley who led the first three rounds, collapsed on the back nine Sunday. He missed two putts under 4 feet to left out of the six-way playoff and finish T7.

We’re now onto the first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs where the Top 125 golfers in the FedEx Cup Standings are competing. After the Northern Trust, the Top 70 golfers will compete in the BMW Championship next week. For a more in-depth breakdown on the FedEx Cup Format, click the following link.

We have the best golfers in the world teeing it up in Jersey City this week. This is the second time in the past three years that the Northern Trust has been held at Liberty National. The tournament itself is played a new location every year, traditionally either in the Boston or New York City areas. It should be a great tournament as everyone tries to stay alive and advance to next week. A total of 55 golfers will be eliminated from the FedEx Cup Playoffs at the end of this week.

Dustin Johnson returns this week, and will look to become the first player ever to win back to back FedEx Cup’s. He currently sits at 17th in the standings but is only 661 points back of the leader, Collin Morikawa. Dustin actually won this event in 2020 when it was hosted at TPC Boston.

 

Tournament Information:

  • Dates: August 19, 2021- August 22, 2021
  • Location: Jersey City , New Jersey, United States
  • Course: Liberty National
  • Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
  • Length: 7,410 yards
  • Format: 72 hole stroke play
  • Field/ Cut: 125 Players | Top 65 and Ties Make the Cut after 36 Holes
  • Greens: A-4 Bentgrass .100″
  • Fairways: L-93 Bentgrass .375″
  • Purse: $9,500,000 / Winner $1.71 Million
  • FedEx Cup Points: 2,000
  • Stimpmeter: 12.5 feet
  • Avg. Green Size: 4,653 sq. ft.
  • Water Hazards: 13 (In-Play on 12 Holes)
  • Bunkers/ Rough: 98 bunkers/ Rough- Low mow – Bluegrass 1.25″, Secondary 3″
  • Stroke Average:
    • 2019: 70.25 (-0.75)
    • 2013: 71.15 (+0.15)

 

Course History:

Liberty National Golf Course is known for it’s impeccable views of New York City. However, prior to the course being built it was the site of a vacant warehouses sitting on contaminated land. It is the closest course to New York City, sitting on the shore of the Hudson River across from Lower Manhattan. “The land was used by the military in varying degrees during World War I and World War II. Ammunition and rail yards were on this site during WW1. While in WW2, Liberty National’s land was actually used as a prisoner of war camp.”- Source

“The site had to be decontaminated before construction could begin. Plastic was put down, then covered by millions of tons of clay and fill. The course sits 50 feet above the previous land, allowing it to offer views of the Statue of Liberty on 15 holes. All the elevation changes are manmade. Over 14 years, the club’s construction required moving six million cubic feet of soil, bringing in 70,000 truckloads of sand, adding 5,000 trees and cost $300 million dollars. The course opened July 4, 2006.”- Source

After Liberty National’s first inaugural event in 2009, the course was renovated due to player’s complaints. A total of 12 greens and 12 tee boxes were adjusted.

Since it’s inception in 2006, Liberty National Golf Course has hosted four professional events. These include, the Barclay’s in 2009 & 2013, the Presidents Cup in 2017, and most recently the Northern Trust in 2019. The Northern Trust was actually called the Barclay’s before, so it’s technically the same tournament with a different sponsor.

 

Course Guide:

Liberty National Golf Course, located right on the Hudson will be susceptible to wind as it has in the past.

The players will start on Hole #1 with a Par 4 dogleg that is protected by numerous bunkers around the green. They’ll face their first long Par 3 on Hole #2, with a tee shot facing directly at the Statue of Liberty. Hole #3 is a Par 4 which rewards accuracy off the tee and around the green. Any shots not on the green, will roll away from the green severely. Hole #4 is a 219 yard Par 3 which features a backdrop of the Manhattan skyline. Hole #5 is one of the most difficult holes on the course. A pond protects the left side of this 427 yard Par 4. In addition to a great tee shot, a precise approach shot is needed as well. Hole #6 is where golfers will face their first par 5. It plays 538 yards and tight green that’s surrounded by bunkers and a pond. Hole #7 is a tight par 4, where the landing area is littered with bunkers. It plays 515 yards, and most players will be happy with a Par here. Hole #8, is a 611 yard Par 5 and is the longest hole on the course. The front nine finishes up with a 474 yard Par 4.

Hole #10 is the longest Par 4 on the course and plays 496 yards. This hole features a multi-tiered green that’s surrounded by three bunkers. Hole #11 is the longest Par 3 on the course playing 230 yards. However, the yardage is deceptive as this is an elevated tee shot. Hole #12 features another elevated tee shot on this Par 4 playing 431 yards. This green is critical to hit as it features massive runoff areas around it. Hole #13 is a reachable Par 5 playing at 580 yards. However, may players may reconsider this option as the green has water protecting it in front. Hole #14 is the 150 yard Par 3 and is the shortest hole on the course. Hole #15 and #16 are back to back Par 4’s playing at 481 and 325 yards respectively. Hole #17 is another Par 4 which features a difficult approach shot. The players finish on a 490 yard Par 4. This approach shot is also difficult as the wind will play a major factor particularly on this hole.

 

Tournament Trends:

  • The past two winners at Liberty National were both 4th or better for SG: Tee to Green
  • The past two winners at Liberty National were both 5th or better for GIR %

 

Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:

  • Course Architect: Bob Cupp & Tom Kite- 2006
  • Renovation: PGA Tour Design Services- 2010
  • Comparable Courses:
    • Shadow Creek
    • Olympia Fields
    • Royal Portrush

 

TV Information:

  • Round 1: Thursday, August 19, 2021
    • Golf Channel* – 3:00 PM –7:00 PM ET
  • Round 2: Friday, August 20, 2021
    • Golf Channel* – 3:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
  • Round 3: Saturday, August 21, 2021
    • Golf Channel* – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
    • CBS** – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
  • Round 4: Sunday, August 22, 2021
    • Golf Channel* – 12:30 PM – 2:30 PM ET
    • CBS** – 2:30 PM – 6:30 PM ET

 

Weather:

  • Thursday: Scattered Thunderstorms 80 F, 10 mp/h SW, 74% Humidity, 40% Chance of Rain
  • Friday: Cloudy 81 F, 6 mp/h NW, 66% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain
  • Saturday: Isolated Thunderstorms 79 F, 8 mp/h ESE, 70% Humidity, 30% Chance of Rain
  • Sunday: Isolated Thunderstorms 77 F, 6 mp/h ENE, 74% Humidity, 30% Chance of Rain

 

Key Statistics:

  • Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
  • Greens in Regulation %
  • Scrambling %
  • Bogey Avoidance
  • Driving Accuracy
  • Par 4: 450-500 yards
  • Proximity: 200+ yards
  • Sand Save %

 

Average Key Stats (previous 2 winners – Liberty National):

  • 2019: Patrick Reed
    • SG Off the Tee: 2nd, SG Approach: 27th, SG Around the Green: 21st, SG Tee to Green: 4th, SG Putting: 20th.
  • 2013: Adam Scott
    • SG Off the Tee: 26th, SG Approach: 7th, SG Around the Green: 6th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 32nd.

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

  • 2020: Dustin Johnson (-30), TPC Boston MA
    • Price: 20-1
  • 2019: Patrick Reed (-16), Liberty National Golf Club
    • Price: 55-1
  • 2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-18), Ridgewood, N.J.
    • Price: 100-1
  • 2017: Dustin Johnson (-13), Glen Oaks, N.Y.
    • Price: 14-1
  • 2016: Patrick Reed (-9), Bethpage Black, N.Y.
    • Price: 50-1
  • 2015: Jason Day (-19), Plainfield, N.J.
    • Price: 10-1
  • 2014: Hunter Mahan (-14), Ridgewood, N.J.
    • Price: 50-1
  • 2013: Adam Scott (-11), Liberty National Golf Club
    • Price: 16-1
  • 2009: Heath Slocum (-9), Liberty National Golf Club

 

Picks (Outright):

  • Rory McIlroy (+2200) – Pointsbet
    • Risk 0.37 to win 8.14 Units
  • Justin Thomas (+2800) – Pointsbet
    • Risk 0.29 to win 8.12 Units
  • Viktor Hovland (+3500)- Pointsbet
    • Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units
  • Patrick Reed (+4500)- Pointsbet
    • Risk 0.18 to win 8.10 Units
  • Kevin Na (+10000) – Pointsbet
    • Risk 0.08 to win 8.0 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.15 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

  • Scottie Scheffler (+150) – FanDuel
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.50 Units

Total Risk on Top 20: 1.00 Units

 

Picks (Matchup):

  • Brooks Koepka (+130) over Bryson Dechambeau
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.30 Units

Total Risk on Matchups: 1.00 Units

 

Total Risk on The Northern Trust: 3.15 Units

PGA Year to Date: +8.50 Units

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.