“The Streak” continues! The Yankees won Friday and now we’re 11-0 this week in MLB free picks (hopefully you’ve been following me here and on Twitter)! Eventually it will end, of course, but you have to savor this while it lasts. Here are my best free plays for Saturday’s jam-packed slate of baseball, football, and UFC!
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Blue Jays -1.5 (-120), 2 units: One of the best offenses in baseball has been ice cold as of late but positive regression is peeking around the corner. I think this might be an ideal spot for the struggling Jays. Alek Manoah (3.18 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 78.1% LOB rate, 3.55 xERA over 68 innings) will take the mound for Toronto and he’s been one of my favorite young starters to play on. Manoah has had a few clunkers, including a 7 run allowance against the Nationals recently, but that game and a few others have inflated his numbers in a way that’s misleading. In 9 of his 13 starts, Manoah has allowed 2 runs or less. Toronto leads MLB in slugging % and their top 5 in a slew of other offensive categories, yet they’re in the bottom 3rd the past 2 weeks. I expect that to change today when they line up against Jose Urena (6.19 ERA, 5.96 xERA, 1.65 WHIP over 80 innings). Urena has been consistently bad all year, permitting way too many runs and way too often. The Jays are sinking in the AL East rankings and if they have a shot at the postseason, they have to turn it around now. The Blue Jays are 23-9 in their last 32 vs. a team with a losing record and they’re in a great spot for positive regression Saturday– I’m on Toronto by margin.
Illinois +7 (-110), 1.5 units: The Fighting Illini host the Nebraska Cornhuskers in the opening game of the college football season and I’m on the home dog. The last time these two teams clashed, Illinois shredded Nebraska by a score of 41-23 in late November, slashing them for 285 yards on the ground and forcing 5 turnovers in a lopsided contest in Lincoln. Now Scott Frost, who’s consistently disappointed in his short tenure with the Cornhuskers, marches into Champaign Illinois on the proverbial “hot seat.” To put it bluntly, I just don’t trust Frost. Although the visitors are the more talented team here (and they were last year too), Frost has yet to demonstrate true command and influence over his players. Nebraska has been mistake-prone, undisciplined, and a turnover-machine throughout his stint as head coach. Illinois has plenty of weaknesses to expose, but if they can avoid turnovers and maintain a solid rushing attack, it’ll be tough for the Cornhuskers to gain margin today. Nebraska is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. Take the dog– there’s little to no value in an underwhelming favorite on the road.
Giga Chikadze (EVEN), 1.5 units: We’re going to buck the trend and go against Edson Barboza in what should be an entertaining striking-battle between these two featherweights. Barboza certainly has more experience and those kicks are forever lethal, but Chikadze has displayed a patience and technical prowess that fighters like Barboza really struggle with. Edson likes to push the pace and force his opponents into bad defense, but we don’t see Chikadze being fooled. The Georgian mixed martial artist has won 8 bouts in a row and he’s on a 6-0 streak since fighting in the UFC. His last two fights ended with first round TKOs from Chikadze, making quick work of big-bodied Jamey Simmons and UFC legend Cub Swanson. At 33, Chikadze is in his prime and while Barboza is always dangerous, we can’t make the same claims for the Brazilian; he’s been fighting since 2009. I think Chikadze takes the fight to Barboza for a late TKO or decision victory.
