*MLB(1u): Cardinals ML(+142) @ Reds–5:40 PM CT
While the Reds have had a better season than the Cardinals, I don’t think a line this high is warranted. That’s especially true considering tonight’s pitching matchup. Reds SP Sonny Gray has had an up-and-down season, and it’s hard for me to trust him on a start-to-start basis; pitching at home this season, Gray has a 4.75 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and a 1.5 HR/9. The Cardinals lineup is pretty mediocre, but they do tend to swing the bats better on the road and have plenty of capable bats throughout their lineup. Cardinals SP Miles Mikolas has made just 3 starts this season due to injury, but he’s built a solid reputation throughout his career in St. Louis. Just 3 years ago, he recorded a sub-3.00 ERA season. This Reds lineup will present a tough matchup, but 3 straight games of scoring just 1 run hints that this lineup is not in great current form. Neither bullpen is all that reliable, but I would still give the advantage to St. Louis in that regard. This is a hyper-inflated line because the Reds are a fun team to watch, but the Cardinals are the smart play at this price.
