CFB Picks and Predictions – September 4, 2021

September 4, 2021

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This is one of the busiest and most exciting times of the year as the baseball season is wrapping up, football is just beginning and basketball/hockey are just around the corner! What a time to be alive! Here are my favorite plays for CFB Week 1!

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Kentucky -31 (-110), 1.5 units: The Kentucky Wildcats program has a lot of hype within their organization this year, with front office and players hopeful they can turn this into a 9+ win season. UL Monroe has a brand new coaching staff and this is a really tough spot at Lexington. Kentucky’s defense should be just as solid as they were in 2020 and the Wildcats’ offense should benefit from good field position behind their capable offensive stars. I’m on Kentucky in a blowout.

Penn State/Wisconsin under 49.5 (-110), 1.5 units: A raucous crowd at Camp Randall Stadium should create a fantastic Big Ten atmosphere as these two titans clash in Week 1. Penn State is struggling with continuity on offense and looks to bring new talent to their defense, while Wisconsin had one of the best defenses in college football last year. The Badgers ranked 4th in the country in yards per game, allowing just under 300 per contest. Penn State has enjoyed playing with pace, they averaged 81.9 plays per game last year (3rd overall in the nation), but that’s often led to turnovers and mistakes. I see a game with two teams struggling to score in a hard-nosed battle in the trenches. The under is 8-2 in Nittany Lions last 10 road games and 4-0 in the Badgers last 4 conference games. I’m on the under in this intra-conference battle.

West Virginia -3 (-110), 2 units: We’ve seen this story before. Apologies to my many friends who are Maryland alum, but I don’t think home-field advantage or a new season of hope will make a difference today. The state of Maryland isn’t as friendly to big gatherings with no masks (trust me, I live here… and I understand it, too) so I doubt Maryland Stadium will be packed this afternoon. West Virginia has more talent on both sides of the ball and should be able to control this game with a very able run game. Maryland has some talent but not nearly as much as they have in past years. The Terrapins are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog and the Mountaineers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings. I’ll take West Virginia– one of my favorite plays today.

Marshall 2.5 (-105), 1 unit: Bet the number not the team! Since we’re still under 3 here, I have to side with Marshall. Navy needs more consistency at quarterback and Marshall is solid on both sides of the ball. I wish this wasn’t at Annapolis but I don’t think it’ll matter. This is only a 1 unit bet since nearly all the trends– in full transparency– favor Navy, but I care not. This is a different, weaker Navy unit and a Marshall team ready to win.

Georgia/Clemson under 51.5 (-110), 1.5 units: There’s a lot of new blood out there for Clemson’s offense and even though Georgia has a few new starters on defense, I think they’ll win that battle more than people are anticipating. The Georgia offense is slow and methodical and nothing a solid Clemson front 7 and secondary should struggle with too often. A huge spotlight game with a lot of eager young talent spells nerves and equals defense more often than not. I’ll take the under.

Nevada wins (+150), 1.5 units: Another road team for Chris? I know I know, but yes indeed– I think the wrong team is favored here. I believe in Chase Strong and the Nevada offense and I don’t think California can keep up. Nevada’s defense isn’t anything to shrug off either, right there with California in the top 40 overall last year according to various categories. Give me Nevada in a late-night “upset.”